- USD/JPY has been under pressure as US-Sino talks remained stuck.
- US GDP, durable goods, and further trade headlines stand out in the Thanksgiving week.
- Late November's daily chart is painting a mixed picture.
- The FX Poll is pointing to short-term gains and drops afterward.
President Donald Trump has dominated dollaryen trading – and downed it. Concerns about US-Sino talks supported the yen, while Trump's demands for a weaker exchange rate weighed on the greenback. Apart from these ongoing themes, top-tier US data is set to determine the moves this week.
This week in USD/JPY: Whipsawed by trade headlines
John Williams, President of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, has reaffirmed the bank's stance that the US economy is in a "good place." Eric Rosengren, his colleague from the Boston Fed, has taken one step further and criticized the Fed's three rate cuts – saying it leaves fewer tools to battle the next recession. Rosengren voted against all rate reductions.
The Fed's meeting minutes have also shown that there is a broad consensus for leaving rates unchanged – supporting the dollar.
These upbeat comments would have pushed the greenback higher if it were not for Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve – who has been brought to the spotlight by the White House. President Trump summoned Powell for an unscheduled meeting and protested about the Fed's rates, which the president sees as high.
Trump also aired his complaints about the strong dollar – and markets reacted by selling the greenback, speculating that the Fed Chairman may succumb to pressure. Others wondered if the surprising encounter may precede a breakdown in trade talks, and the Trump is asking for Powell´s help in troubled times.
Upbeat comments from various administration officials and the reports of a video teleconference between high ranking officials kept markets cheerful early in the week, and USD/JPY advanced.
That changed quickly.
The media reported that China was skeptical about reaching a broad trade deal with the US. Hu Xijin, the editor of the Global Times – often considered a mouthpiece of Chinese authorities, criticized Trump for waiting for Chinese concessions that will not come. The downbeat tone strengthened the safe-haven yen.
Moreover, Congress passed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong and angering China. Negotiations around commerce are hard to separate from other topics. However, at the time of writing, Trump has refrained from signing the bill into law
Additional headlines whipsawed markets and USD/JPY as trade tops the agenda.
US housing figures were mixed, with Building permits leaping to an annualized level of 1.461 million while Housing Starts slipped to 1.314 million in October.
US events: GDP, durables, and more trade headlines
The upcoming week is a shorter one due to the Thanksgiving holiday. US markets will be closed on Thursday, and many traders are set to skip work on the following day – Black Friday.
Trade headlines are set to continue rocking markets. Any optimism toward reaching a trade deal may boost the dollar on lower chances for a rate cut. Downbeat comments may send the greenback lower.
Several housing figures are of interest on Tuesday, with New Homs Sales set to hold onto high levels over 700,000 units annualized. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence disappointed in October but remained at high levels. It may advance in this publication for November.
A big bulk of figures is due out on Wednesday. The second read of US Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter is watched for any changes to the 1.9% annualized growth rate initially reported. While the US is outperforming its peers in the developed world, the expansion rate remains sluggish and may worsen.
Durable Goods Orders for October – already in the fourth quarter – are published at the same time and may steal the show. The Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate put fourth-growth at below 1% – and investment figures may rock markets. The most significant measure is Nondefense ex-air orders, which dropped by 0.6% in September and may decrease once again.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE), is set to remain unchanged in October despite a drop in the parallel Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book is the last pre-Thanksgiving publication. It provides anecdotal evidence from the Fed's contacts, and it may shed some light on the economic situation and the impact of trade.
Here are the top US events as they appear on the forex calendar:
Japan: Geopolitics and inflation figures
The Japanese yen holds onto its throne as the king of safe-haven currencies. It has an inverse correlation with the mood in trade talks and is also sensitive to geopolitical events. Iran has increased its nuclear capabilities, and North Korea is also frustrated with US policy. Flare-ups on both fronts may boost the yen.
In Japan, the most significant economic release comes from the Tokyo region. Inflation figures for November will likely show meager levels of inflation. Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food, stands out.
Industrial Production figures may also be of interest. September's data have shown an annual increase of 1.3%, and the rise may be more moderate in the preliminary report for November.
Here are the events lined up in Japan:
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
Dollar/yen has lost its uptrend support, and attempts to recapture the line have failed. The currency pair remains supported by the 50-day Simple Moving Average but is capped by the 200-day SMA. Momentum continues flat.
All in all, bears enjoy a minor lead over the bulls.
Support awaits at 108.20, which is the confluence of the 50-day SMA and a low point in mid-November. It is followed by 107.90, which is the November low. It is followed by 107, a support line in late November, and a round number. Next, we find the late-October low of 106.50.
Resistance awaits at 109, which is the convergence of the 200-day SMA and a stubborn cap in late October. 109.35 held dollar/yen down twice. Next, 109.95 held it down in May, and 110.65 was a high point in May.
USD/JPY Sentiment
Trying to understand Trump is no easy feat, but chances for a trade deal are higher than for no accord. On the other hand, an agreement may have to wait for the last minute, and the longer it drags, the more USD/JPY comes under pressure.
The FX Poll is showing that experts foresee a moderate rise in the upcoming week but drops in the next month and also in the quarter. Targets are little changed from the previous week. It seems that forecasters are downbeat about the chances of a deal.
Related Forecasts
- EUR/USD Forecast: Further falls due amid downtrend channel downbeat data and trade troubles
- GBP/USD Forecast: Corbyn comeback or Boris bull-run? Opinion polls to move markets
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Further gains need to clear 0.6375
AUD/USD navigated an irresolute day on Wednesday, hovering around the 0.6350 zone on the back of further gains in the US Dollar and amid some prudence ahead of the release of the Australian jobs report on Thursday.

EUR/USD: Initial contention lies at 1.0400
EUR/USD kept its bearish trend well in place for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, slipping back to the 1.0400 zone in response to further improvement in the Greenback.

Gold retreats, holds firmly above $2,920
Prices of Gold now face increasing selling pressure and recedes to the area of daily lows near the $2,930 level per ounce troy in response to the strong bounce in the Greenback, and mixed US yields.

Dogecoin price targets $0.50 as Elon Musk enters $44 billion investment talks for X
Dogecoin price gained 0.30% on Wednesday, getting close to the $0.26 resistance after four consecutive days of losses. News reports show the DOGE markets were lifted by fresh investment talks involving Elon Musk’s social media company X.

Money market outlook 2025: Trends and dynamics in the Eurozone, US, and UK
We delve into the world of money market funds. Distinct dynamics are at play in the US, eurozone, and UK. In the US, repo rates are more attractive, and bills are expected to appreciate. It's also worth noting that the Fed might cut rates more than anticipated, similar to the UK. In the eurozone, unsecured rates remain elevated.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.