USD/JPY Forecast: Fading optimism helps the dollar

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

USD/JPY Current price: 107.16

US Retail Sales expected to have recovered further in June.
ECB’s monetary policy decision unlikely to surprise speculative interest.
USD/JPY is neutral within familiar levels, still depending on the market’s sentiment.

The American dollar is seeing some demand this Thursday, as optimism continues to fade. The USD/JPY pair recovered some ground but keeps trading in well-limited intraday ranges, now in the 107.10 area. Upbeat Chinese data released overnight was overshadowed by a new spike on new coronavirus cases in the US, which reported over 70,000 new contagions in the last 24 hours. The death toll is also on the rise. Stocks trade in the red, underpinning the greenback.

The market is now waiting for the ECB monetary policy decision, and US macroeconomic figures. The European Central Bank will probably be a non-event, as policymakers are expected to maintain rates and the PEPP unchanged. The focus will be on comments from President Lagarde, who will probably focus on the rescue fund that EU countries are yet to agree on. As for the US, the country will publish June Retail Sales, foreseen up by 5% after adding 17.7% in the previous month.

USD/JPY short-term technical outlook

The USD/JPY pair retains its neutral stance according to intraday readings, as it has been trading around the current level for over a month already. In the 4 hours chart, the pair is hovering around a directionless 20 SMA, while the larger ones also lack strength, a handful of pips above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, recovered from intraday lows, but lost directional momentum around their midlines.

Support levels: 106.95 106.60 106.20

Resistance levels: 107.30 107.75 108.10

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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