|

USD/JPY forecast: Elliott Wave signals resumption of bearish momentum [Video]

The USD/JPY currency pair is showing a bearish trend that began on July 3, 2024, and is expected to continue declining toward the 136.50 level. In the short term, the price movement since the March 28, 2025 high is forming a zigzag pattern, according to Elliott Wave analysis.

From the March 28, 2025 high, the decline in wave (A) reached 139.89. This was followed by a corrective wave (B), which also unfolded as a zigzag. Within wave (B), the price rose to 144.03 (wave A), then dipped to 141.95 (wave B). Afterwards, it climbed to 145.90 (wave C), completing wave (B). The pair has since turned lower, starting wave (C).

Wave (C) is currently developing as an impulse pattern in Elliott Wave terms. From the May 2, 2025 high, the price dropped to 143.72 (wave (i)), then rallied to 145.08 (wave (ii)). The decline resumed, reaching 142.34 (wave (iii)). A corrective rally in wave (iv) is believed to have finished at 143.30. The pair is now expected to decline further to complete wave (v). This will finalize wave ((i)) in the larger structure. After this, a corrective rally in wave ((ii)) should occur, partially recovering from the May 2, 2025 high, before the downward trend resumes.

In the near term, as long as the high at 145.90 holds, any upward movements are likely to be limited and fail in a pattern of 3, 7, or 11 swings, leading to further declines.

USD/JPY 60 minute Elliott Wave chart

USD/JPY Elliott Wave [Video]

Author

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

ElliottWave-Forecast.com

More from Elliott Wave Forecast Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD gathers recovery momentum, trades near 1.1750

Following the correction seen in the second half of the previous week, EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades in positive territory near 1.1750. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract buyers and supports the pair as investors await Tuesday's GDP data ahead of the Christmas holiday. 

GBP/USD knocks ten-week highs ahead of holiday slowdown

GBP/USD found room on the high side on Monday, kicking off a holiday-shortened trading week with a fresh spat of Greenback weakness, bolstering the Pound Sterling into its highest bids in ten weeks. Pound traders are largely brushing off the latest interest rate cut from the Bank of England as the UK’s central bank policy strategy leaves the water murky for rate-cut watchers.

Gold buying remains unabated; fresh all-time peak and counting

Gold builds on the previous day's blowout rally through the $4,400 mark and continues scaling new record highs through the Asian session on Tuesday. Bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Fed, renewed US Dollar selling bias, and rising geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be key factors driving flows towards the bullion. Traders now look to the delayed release of the revised US Q3 GDP print and US Durable Goods Orders for a fresh impetus.

Year ahead 2026: Where will Bitcoin be in a year’s time?

Bitcoin, which accounts for roughly 60% of total crypto market capitalization, entered 2025 with unstoppable momentum under a crypto‑friendly Trump administration. The rally was supported by major regulatory wins and accelerating institutional adoption.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

XRP steadies above $1.90 support as fund inflows and retail demand rise

Ripple (XRP) is stable above support at $1.90 at the time of writing on Monday, after several attempts to break above the $2.00 hurdle failed to materialize last week. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the cross-border remittance token has remained steady.