USD/JPY declines: Yen gains safe-haven appeal

The USD/JPY pair fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen strengthening to around 147.19 JPY per US dollar. The move reflects broad-based USD weakness and growing expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week, with a total of 67 basis points’ easing anticipated through the remainder of the year. These expectations are reinforced by recent data pointing to a cooling labour market and moderating inflation.

The Bank of Japan is also set to meet this week and is widely expected to hold rates steady at 0.5%. Meanwhile, policymakers will need to evaluate the potential impact of US tariff policies on Japan’s export-dependent economy.

Upcoming economic releases are likely to show continued softness: both exports and imports are forecast to remain weak, while core CPI is expected to slow to 2.7% – the lowest level since November 2024.

Amid elevated global volatility, the yen is demonstrating relative strength, underscoring its role as a safe-haven asset.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

Four-hour chart

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to trade within a consolidation range centred around 147.33 JPY, with recent extensions towards 148.14 JPY on the upside and 146.90 JPY on the downside. A further decline towards 146.30 JPY is possible. Should this level be reached, a corrective bounce towards 147.33 JPY may occur before another leg down towards 145.30 JPY. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing firmly downward.

One-hour chart

On the H1 chart, the pair is following a clear downward move structure towards 146.76 JPY. The market has broken below its recent consolidation range, confirming the bearish momentum. Further declines towards 146.76 JPY are expected, with an extension towards 144.44 JPY likely. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line remains below 50 and is trending downward towards 20, reflecting strengthening selling pressure.

Conclusion

The yen is strengthening amid broad USD softness and safe-haven demand, with all eyes on this week’s Fed and BoJ meetings. While the BoJ is likely to remain on hold, the Fed’s dovish shift could further weigh on USD/JPY in the near term. Technically, the pair exhibits clear bearish momentum, with key support levels in focus. A break below 146.30 JPY may accelerate the decline towards deeper supports.