USD/CHF forecast: Wave four correction still in progress — Eyes on 0.833 break for confirmation

Wave four correction in progress: Sideways move dominates

The USD/CHF pair remains locked in a consolidation phase, which according to Elliott Wave analysis, is part of a broader wave 4 correction. As seen in the 1-hour chart, this correction has so far taken the form of a sideways move, suggesting that we are currently inside wave ((b)) of this larger wave 4 structure.

Wave ((a)) topped out around the 0.833 level, and since then, price has been trading within a horizontal range, suggesting the market is still undecided on the precise nature of wave 4—whether it will unfold as a flat, triangle, or a more complex corrective structure.

Key resistance: 0.833 needs to break

Technically, the 0.8330 level serves as a crucial resistance. A clear break above this point would provide strong evidence that wave ((b)) has completed and the market is ready to proceed higher into wave ((c)) of wave 4. This upside move is projected to target Fibonacci resistance zones, with 0.83800 as the 61.8% retracement level and 0.85000 as the 100% equality projection.

These targets, derived from the length of wave ((a)), offer insight into where wave ((c)) might complete, assuming a symmetrical correction.

Wave structure still unclear: Multiple outcomes possible

At this stage, the exact form of wave 4 remains uncertain. While a flat correction appears likely due to the current sideways nature of the consolidation, we cannot yet rule out the possibility of a running triangle or even a complex combination (W-X-Y).

Traders should remain patient and allow the structure to mature, watching closely for any breakout signals. As long as price remains contained below 0.8330, the corrective wave ((b)) could extend further, potentially dragging out the consolidation.

Conclusion

USD/CHF remains in a corrective wave 4, with the market currently trading sideways inside wave ((b)). A break above 0.833 will likely initiate wave ((c)), targeting higher Fibonacci levels. However, the final shape of wave 4 is still unknown, and traders should stay alert for signs of either continuation or an alternative corrective structure. Until then, USD/CHF continues to offer a valuable setup for those following Elliott Wave principles.