Morning briefing: EUR/USD can attempt to rise towards 1.2000 and higher

The DXY can decline towards 96.00-95.50 in the near term. While, EURUSD can attempt to rise towards 1.20 and higher. EURINR can target 109-110 while it stays above 107. EURJPY is coming off within its 187.50-182.50 range. USDJPY can fall towards 153-152 levels before rebounding later on. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie has moved past 0.71 and if sustained, can test 0.7150-0.7200 levels in the near term. Pound need to sustain above 1.365 to head toward 1.38 and higher levels. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. US NFP, US Unemployment & US Avg Hrly Earnings data are scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields have come down further sharply. The fall is in line with our expectation, but the pace of fall is a surprise. There is room to fall further from here before a reversal is seen. The Retail Sales for December at 1.98% (YoY) down from 2.94% (November) triggered this fall. The unemployment rate data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields are coming down in line with our expectation. They can fall more. The 10Yr GoI has come down but support is there to limit the downside. The yield can reverse higher from this support and resume the upmove.

The Dow and the DAX need to break above 50500 and 25000 respectively to move up further else could soon see a correction from current levels itself. Nifty is headed towards 26000 and higher. Nikkei continues to rally and targets 58000-58500 before pausing for a correction while Shanghai is rising towards 4200 as expected.

Brent and WTI continue to trade within their respective ranges of $70–$66 and $66–$62, awaiting a decisive breakout. Gold is struggling below $5100 and needs a sustained move above it to target $5300–$5500, else it risks slipping towards $4800–$4700. Silver faces resistance near $90, which could cap gains and push it down to $70–$65. Copper must rise past $6.00 to strengthen towards $6.20–$6.40, while Natural Gas holds above $3.10 and can bounce towards $3.30–$3.50 as long as this support remains intact.