|

USD/CAD Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

USDCAD Elliott Wave Analysis – Trading Lounge.

U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Day Chart.

USD/CAD Elliott Wave technical analysis

  • Function: Bearish Trend.

  • Mode: Impulsive.

  • Structure: Navy Blue Wave 3.

  • Position: Gray Wave 1.

  • Direction Next Lower Degrees: Navy Blue Wave 3 (Started).

  • Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 1.47952

Analysis Overview:

The USDCAD Elliott Wave Analysis for the day chart highlights a bearish trend, with the market currently in impulsive mode. The structure is classified as Navy Blue Wave 3, which is part of a larger downward movement within Gray Wave 1. This suggests that the market is in a strong downward phase, characteristic of an impulsive wave structure.

The next anticipated movement is the continuation of Navy Blue Wave 3, which has already begun and is expected to push the market further downward.

Key Market Insights:

  • Navy Blue Wave 2 appears to have concluded, and the market is now progressing into Navy Blue Wave 3.

  • This wave is expected to show strong downward momentum, aligning with the impulsive nature of the trend.

  • Traders should monitor Navy Blue Wave 3, as its completion will signal a potential transition to a new market phase.

  • The completion of Navy Blue Wave 3 will provide valuable insights into timing and direction for the next lower-degree wave.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Wave Cancellation Invalid Level: 1.47952

    • If the price rises above this level, it would invalidate the current wave count, necessitating a reassessment of the market structure.

    • This level serves as key resistance, and a break above could indicate a trend shift or pattern adjustment.

Conclusion:

The USDCAD remains in a bearish trend, with Navy Blue Wave 3 in play following the completion of Navy Blue Wave 2. This impulsive movement is a part of Gray Wave 1, and the next significant move is expected to be the continuation of Navy Blue Wave 3.

Traders should closely monitor Navy Blue Wave 3, as it provides critical insights into the market’s direction. This analysis underscores the importance of wave structures in forecasting market movements and aligning trading strategies accordingly.

U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 4-Hour Chart.

USD/CAD Elliott Wave technical analysis

  • Function: Bearish Trend.

  • Mode: Impulsive.

  • Structure: Orange Wave 1.

  • Position: Navy Blue Wave 3.

  • Direction Next Higher Degrees: Orange Wave 2.

  • Wave Cancel Invalid Level: 1.47952.

Analysis Overview:

The USDCAD Elliott Wave Analysis for the 4-hour chart highlights a bearish trend, with the market currently in impulsive mode. The structure is identified as Orange Wave 1, which is part of a larger downward movement within Navy Blue Wave 3. This suggests that the market is in a strong downward phase, characteristic of an impulsive wave structure.

The next anticipated movement is Orange Wave 2, which is expected to follow the completion of Orange Wave 1.

Key Market Insights:

  • Navy Blue Wave 2 appears to have concluded, and the market is now progressing into Orange Wave 1 of 3.

  • This wave is expected to continue its downward momentum, aligning with the impulsive trend.

  • Traders should monitor the development of Orange Wave 1, as its completion will signal the potential start of Orange Wave 2, a corrective phase that could introduce temporary pullbacks or consolidation before the downward trend resumes.

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Wave Cancellation Invalid Level: 1.47952

    • If the price rises above this level, it would invalidate the current wave count, requiring a reassessment of the market structure.

    • This level serves as key resistance, and a break above it could indicate a trend shift or pattern adjustment.

Conclusion:

The USDCAD remains in a bearish trend, with Orange Wave 1 in play following the completion of Navy Blue Wave 2. This impulsive movement is part of Navy Blue Wave 3, and the next significant move is anticipated to be Orange Wave 2.

Traders should closely monitor the completion of Orange Wave 1, as it provides critical insights into the timing and direction of the next higher-degree wave. This analysis emphasizes the importance of wave structures in predicting market trends and aligning trading strategies effectively.

Technical analyst: Malik Awais.

USD/CAD Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

Author

Peter Mathers

Peter Mathers

TradingLounge

Peter Mathers started actively trading in 1982. He began his career at Hoei and Shoin, a Japanese futures trading company.

More from Peter Mathers
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1700 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD stays under mild bearish pressure and trades below 1.1750 on Friday. Although trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, the modest recovery seen in the US Dollar causes the pair to edge lower. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stabilizes near 1.3450

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades marginally lower on the day at around 1.3450 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold climbs toward $4,400 following deep correction

Gold advances toward $4,400 and gains more than 1.5% on the day after suffering heavy losses amid profit-taking heading into the end of the year. Growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy and persistent geopolitical risks seem to be helping XAU/USD stretch higher.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).