US Nonfarm payrolls to boost the dollar

Yann Quelenn Swissquote Bank Ltd

The dollar is strengthening ahead of the Nonfarm payrolls that will released as usual the first Friday of the month at 2.30pm. Expectations are anyway strong with markets awaiting a release slightly below 200k.

The greenback is driven higher and is now trading at levels around two-week highs against the single currency. In the same time US equities continue to increase. The famous Christmas Rally has already started and the NFPs will bring everything but stop the equity rally. Yet this definitely seems timid compared to what is happening now for Bitcoin.

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Amid the NFPs’ release, we will also carefully consider the hourly wages growth which will likely provide any hints of inflationary pressures. Expectations are of an increase to 2.7 y/y from 2.4. This is also why we maintain our view that inflation is coming back up in the US and even though the Fed will raise rates next week, markets are still unsure about what will be the Fed monetary policy for 2018. Three rate hikes a year seem like difficult to achieve as pressures on all asset classes will not be sustainable. This may be one opportunity to buy back the euro against the dollar on the dip this afternoon.

Author

Yann Quelenn

Swissquote Bank Ltd

Yann Quelenn is a Market Analyst at Swissquote Bank with strong technical and financial background. Previously, he worked as FX Trader at Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild and as Portfolio Manager at Polaris Investment in Luxembourg.

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