US hedge fund bailout flows through to massive tech recovery in KR

Asia Market Update: US Hedge Fund bailout flows through to massive tech recovery in KR; Tech earnings continue as Tesla CN sale denied; Triple intervention (JP,KR, US) creates less work for BOJ; CN output falls; Mid-East calm, but weekend risks remain.

General trend and developments

- Reports that $24B hedge fund Situational Awareness had blown up this week, being forced to sell its entire open order book during the week with the final draining of its AI tech bets taking place on Thursday, set the US market up for a strong recovery on Thursday - and set the stage for more historical price action out of Korea...

-A remarkable boomerang recovery for Korean equities today following the ~25% losses earlier in the week. The Kospi was up +14% within minutes of the open, continuing on to be +17% higher; with Samsung +24% and SK Hynix an eye-watering +29%. Japanese chip-relateds joined in, with Tokyo Electron +7%, Advantest +16%, Renesas +7%, SoftBank +14% all helping to power the Nikkei up more than 4%.

-Tech earnings continue at pace; Mirror opposite outcomes again for Mag7 stocks (as per Meta and Microsoft yesterday) as Apple fell -6% even as Amazon rose by as much as +9% after hours.

-Apple fell as it posted record June-quarter revenue of $109.4 billion (up 16% year-over-year but punished for weaker-than-expected September quarter revenue guidance of 9% to 11% growth. This also marked Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO before John Ternus takes over on September.

-Amazon shares shot up as it crushed expectations with net sales surging past $200.6 billion and EPS jumping to $5.75, heavily aided by a $53.4 billion non-operating gain from its investment in Anthropic. AWS revenue accelerated 37% year-over-year along with AI and custom chips hitting $25 billion run rates.

-Breaking news saw the WSJ report that Tesla was considering the sale of its China business, where its massive Shanghai Giga Factory turns out over half of all global output for the company. Reason said to be to make way for a potential SpaceX merger by taking away potential conflicts with SpaceX’s US military business. However, Musk later said the reporting was 'fake news“.

-The Bank of Japan held at 1%, pausing as expected after the prior hike. Vote was not unanimous as Board member Takata wanted to hike again. Statement noted that risks to prices are skewed to the upside, while risks to economic outlook remain evenly balanced; Reminder that BOJ Gov Ueda to hold post rate decision press conference at 02:30 ET (06:30 GMT).

-The BOJ’s job was made easier through 40-year lows in the Yen being sharply reversed by 3%, or five Big Handles, from 163 to 158 within just an hour during the US morning. Later statements confirmed triple intervention by Japan, Korea and the US acting in unison; Japan buying Yen as Korea sold dollars (a rare move, made possible by recent strength in the Won), while US Treas Sec Bessent said that the Yen seemed "very undervalued" to him, along with reports that US authorities also conducted rate checks. Korea later confirmed the three-way coordination. Overall a nice coordinated money-go-round amongst the three FX collaborators.

-China’s Politburo meeting yesterday was underwhelming. The only notable in the statement was that state spending was behind in the first half, so an acceleration in spending likely during H2. Likely to be needed, as China’s July Manufacturing fell into contraction for the first time in 5 months.

-Crude oil fell during Asian trading, back down to the $80 handle as US Def Sec Cooper said to have presented Trump on option for a 10- to 14-day air campaign aimed at severely degrading Iran’s missile capabilities.

--Fortescue rewarded +2.5% for its solid Q4 numbers,

- Fortescue continues to build on its decades-long strong relationship with China, this week welcoming Chinese industrial leaders to Perth and the Pilbara for the Boao Forum for Asia. This included representatives from major suppliers and partners across steel, renewables and mining equipment.

-US equity FUTs +0.5% to +1.1% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

-Fri July 31st: TW Prelim Q2 GDP, HK Prelim Q2 GDP, EU Prelim Jul CPI.

-Sat Aug 1st: OPEC Meeting.

Holidays in Asia this week

-Tue July 28th: Thailand.

-Wed July 29th: Thailand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens +1.0% at 9,055.

-(AU) Australia Q2 PPI Q/Q: 1.3% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.0% prior.

-(AU) Australia Jun Private Sector Credit M/M: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 8.5% v 8.2% prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand July ANZ Consumer Confidence: 99.3 v 91.3 prior.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite opens +0.8% at 3,834; (HK) Hang Seng opens flat at 25,838.

-(CN) CHINA JULY MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.2 V 50.1E (moves into contraction after 4th month of expansion).

-(CN) China's regular end-of-July Politburo meeting: Reiterates moderately loose monetary policy [EU market close].

-(CN) China's Politburo Study Session: President Xi: Promotes modernisation of national defense and military - Xinhua.

-(CN) China's NDRC: Computing network construction drives CNY4T investment; CNY755B from central budget delivered for investment - [Regular] Briefing.

-(CN) China media continues to see RRR and interest rate cuts in 2026 [inline] – US financial press.

-(CN) Banks in China cut deposit rates – Chinese press.

-(CN) China Coast Guard: Conducted routine law enforcement patrols in the waters East of Taiwan island on July 31st [2026].

-(CN) China Daily: Reiterates China’s open-weight AI is a ‘boon’ for the world.

-(CN) Montage Technology Announces ‘Industry-First’ Trial Production of CXL 3.2 MXC Chip.

-(CN) China reportedly to raise parcel volumes up to 270B items under China 5-year plan to expand capacity and rural services - China Daily (update).

-(CN) USD/CNY(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7894 v 6.7892 prior.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY600B in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repos.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY134B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY45B v injects CNY67B prior.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens +0.1% at 61,948.

-(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.00%; AS EXPECTED; VOTE 8-1; Risks to prices are skewed to the upside, while risks to economic outlook remain evenly balanced.

-(JP) BOJ QUARTERLY OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND PRICES: now sees risks to economic activity as 'generally balanced', affirms inflation risks are skewed to the upside; reiterates stance that it will raise rates based on the data.

-(JP) GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL: CONFIRMS JAPAN CONDUCTED FX INTERVENTION.

-(JP) JAPAN JULY TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.8%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.8% [Tokyo CPI rises at fastest pace since December, 2025].

-(JP) JAPAN JUN PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.3% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: 4.2% V 3.2%E.

-(JP) JAPAN JUN RETAIL SALES M/M: -4.1% V -1.6%E; Y/Y: 0.5% V 3.1%E.

-(JP) Japan Jun Jobless Rate: 2.5% v 2.5%e.

-(JP) Japan Jun Annualized Housing Starts: 786K v 750Ke; Y/Y: 18.6% v 12.7%e.

-(JP) US Treasury Sec Bessent: Japan may have intervened in currency markets earlier on Thursday [30th July, 2026] - Fox Business.

-(JP) Japan JERA Exec: Adequate LNG inventories have been secured through October, and stable power supply will not be affected even during heatwave in summer.

-(JP) Japan top FX diplomat Mimura to be reappointed for third term - Japan govt statement.

-(JP) Japan top FX diplomat Mimura: No comment on FX.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: No comment on FX intervention.

-(JP) Japan Fin Min Katayama: [Confirms] Top FX diplomat Mimura to remain in role.

-(JP) Japan Econ Min Kiuchi: Will continue to watch market trend very carefully.

-(JP) Japan Chief Cab Sec Kihara: Decline to comment on whether intervened or not.

-(JP) Japan govt looks to develop western Japan into a hub for investment in biotech and advanced medicine - Nikkei.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens +1.1% at 5,657

-(KR) South Korea FX authorities conducted rare dollar-selling intervention on Thursday [follows the earlier reporting about suspected FX intervention by Japan] - Market Sources.

-(KR) South Korea Jun Industrial Production M/M: 6.4% v 2.9%e; Y/Y: 5.8% v 3.0%e.

-(KR) South Korea Dep Fin Min Moon Ji-sung (FX chief): Coordinating closely with major countries such as Japan and US on FX markets; Declines to comment on whether South Korea intervened in Won.

-(KR) Korea said to plan $14B for wealth fund's failed "AI bets" after "Situational Awareness" hedge fund blow out earlier this week.

-(KR) FT: ‘My life’s screwed’; South Korea investors stress out after AI-related losses - update.

Other Asia

-(ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI): Remains in FX market via Spot, NDF and DNDF - Indonesia press.

-(PH) Philippine Central Bank: July annual inflation likely within range of 5.6-6.6%.

-(SG) Singapore Jun Unemployment Rate: 2.0% v 2.1%e.

-(SG) Singapore Jun M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.5% v 8.8% prior;.

-(PH) Philippines Jun Bank Lending Y/Y: 11.4% v 12.5% prior.

-(PH) Philippines Jun M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.6% v 12.8% prior.

North America

-(US) Reportedly $24B hedge fund Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner) sold entire book of public investments after big losses on AI stocks - CNBC's Faber [US market close].

-(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 1.5% V 2.0%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.2% V 2.3%E [US market close].

-(US) Q2 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 6.2% V 4.0%E; CORE PCE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 3.4% V 3.5% [US market close].

-(US) JUN PCE PRICE INDEX M/M: -0.1% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.7%E [US market close].

-(US) JUN PERSONAL INCOME: 0.2% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.3% V 0.4%E [US market close].

-(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 197K V 200KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.782M V 1.80ME [US market close].

-(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +28 BCF VS. +34 BCF TO +36 BCF INDICATED RANGE [US market close].

-(US) Treasury's $110B 4-week bills draw 3.630% v 3.730% prior, BTC 2.80x v 2.79x prior; $100B 8-week bills draw 3.675% v 3.795% prior, BTC 2.80 v 2.31x prior [US market close].

-(US) Dallas May Trimmed Mean PCE (m/m) +1.4% v +2.7% prior [US market close].

-(US) National Economic Council Hassett: If needed, we'll continue measures to lower oil prices - CNN.

-(US) USTR: Raised concern about new supply chain measures with [China's Vice Premier] Lifeng.
Follow up: Situational Awareness reportedly said to approach Greenoaks, Sequoia.

-(US) US regulators cite 'circular risk' in investments used by KKR and Apollo - FT.

-(US) Pres Trump cabinet meeting to be held at Camp David at 11am ET Friday.

-(AR) Argentina's President Milei presents Central Bank reform in a TV address.

Europe

-(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES BANK RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.75%; AS EXPECTED; Maintains guidance on interest rate [EU market close].

-(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) JULY MINUTES: VOTED 6-3 TO KEEP POLICY STEADY (Mann joins Pill and Greene voting for 25bps hike) [EU market close].

-(UR) President Trump: 'Not sure' will let Ukraine build Patriot missiles - FT.

-(UR) US, Ukraine signed a pact last week on drone technology; Ukraine's drones can be sent to US for military testing - NBC [citing Ukraine's Ambassdaor].

-(UK) July Lloyds Business Barometer: 49 v 44 prior [4-month high].

-(EU) Euro Zone Q2 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.2%; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.7%e [EU market close].

-(EU) Euro Zone Jun Unemployment Rate: 6.3% v 6.2%e [EU market close].

-(EU) Euro Zone July Economic Confidence: 96.9 v 96.0e; [EU market close].

-(ES) Spain Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.4%e [EU market close].

-(ES) Spain July Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.2%e [EU market close].

-(ES) Spain July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9% prior [EU market close].

-(FR) France Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e [EU market close].

-(FR) France Jun Consumer Spending M/M: +0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1%e [EU market close].

-(FR) France Q2 Preliminary Private Sector Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e [EU market close].

-(DE) Germany Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.6%e; GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.6%e [EU market close].

-(IT) Italy Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.7%e [EU market close].

-(CH) Swiss July KOF Leading Indicator: 103.5 v 100.9e [EU market close].

-(NL) Netherlands July Preliminary CPI Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.0%e.

-(FI) Finland Jun Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 2.3% v 6.0% prior.

-(RO) Romania Defense Ministry: Scrambles two jets as aerial targets detected near border river with Ukraine - post on X.

Middle East

-(IR) Pentagon said to seek $18.2B in Iran war funds for interceptors.

-(IR) Iran Army: Carried out drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait's Ahmed al Jaber air base (time frame uncertain).

-(IL) Pres. Trump: Today, the Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all...

-(IL) Board of Peace Official: Process will take some time to implement.

-(IL) US Officials: Seeing local technocratic government as an alternative now to Palestinian authority and Hamas.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +4.3%; ASX 200 +0.2%; Hang Seng -0.2%; Shanghai Composite +0.9%; Kospi +17.4%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.5%; Nasdaq100 +1.1%; DAX +0.6%; FTSE100 +0.5%.

EUR 1.1532-1.1504; JPY 160.88-159.41; AUD 0.7034-0.7020; NZD 0.5883-0.5852.

Gold -0.5% at $4,082/oz; BTC +0.6% at $64,405; WTI Crude Oil -2.4% at $81.62/bbl; Copper +0.3% at $6.5207/lbs.