US election: Speculation against facts
The week started on a cautious note in Europe and the US as today’s US presidential election looks very close to call and could eventually result in a tight – and even a contested outcome. As such, the major risk today is not a Harris or a Trump win, but it’s the reality that a Harris win could be heavily contested by Mr, Trump and lead to violence and chaos, and more uncertainty than necessary and hit sentiment.
But apart from that, the fact that Trump and Harris have different economic and political agendas, different priorities and the fact that there are sectors that could see a better lift under one or the other presidency may not change the overall performance of the long-term stock market, and not even the concerned sectors...
Did you know that clean energy outperformed traditional energies by 43% under Trump’s presidency? And, wait, traditional energies outpaced clean energies by 53% per year under the Biden presidency.
And zooming out, a quick glance to the S&P500’s performance a year following a US election has always been positive since 1984, no matter if the US was led by a Republican or a Democrat, except in 2000’s tech bubble.
Author
Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Ipek Ozkardeskaya began her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked in HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high-net-worth clients.
