• Consumer confidence stable at historically elevated levels
  • First quarter GDP, personal spending support consumer optimism
  • Labor market underpins household consumption

The Conference Board will issue its Consumer Confidence Index for April at 10:00 am EDT, 14:00 pm GMT on Tuesday April 30th.


The Consumer Confidence Index from the business organization the Conference Board is expected to increase to 126.0 in April form 124.1 in March.  The Present Situation Index was at 160.6 in March down from 172.8 in February. The Expectations Index registered 99.8 last month lower than the 103.8 score in February.

US Economy

American economic growth accelerated in the first quarter.   The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that its advance estimate for annualized gross domestic product was 3.2%, a step up from the 2.2% in the fourth quarter.  The consensus estimate had been 2.0%.  The GDP figures will be revised twice on April 26th and May 30th.

Retail sales in March rose 1.6% much faster than the 0.9% forecast and the GDP destined control group, jumped 1.0% more than twice the 0.4% prediction. The three month moving average in control was 0.8%, the highest since April 2014.


Durable goods orders in March were also strong coming in at 2.7% more than triple the 0.8% expectation. Business spending in capital goods, the nondefense ex-aircraft category in durable goods grew 1.3%, ending the best three months since last August.

Personal consumption increased 0.9% in March the largest one month gain in household spending in almost a decade, since September 2009.


The excellent job market is behind the rise in consumption and it operates a loop back to economic growth through the impact of increasing consumer demand on business outlook and production. As long as people are confident of their employment, current and future, as long as wages are rising the 70% of the US economy that derives from consumer spending will remain healthy.  

Consumer Confidence

Given the performance of the US economy over the past two years it is not surprising that the consumer confidence readings have been some of the best in two decades.

In the 52 year history of this series there have been only two periods when consumer optimism reached and sustained such high levels. Taking the two year moving average of 126.33 in March as a guide, Americas have been this satisfied only twice, from September 1998 to October 2001, and in the earliest reading at the start of the survey from February 1967 to June 1970.


Conference Board sentiment broke through the post-recession high of 103.80 (January 2015) in November 2016 and has remained above the pre-recession high of 111.90 (July 2007) since February 2017.

Sentiment reached an 18 year high at 137.90 in October 2018 and slipped the next month to 136.40. By December it had fallen to 126.6. The partial shutdown of the federal government for most of January garnered the weakest reading in 16 months 121.70. The recovery to 131.4 in February was followed by another drop to 124.10 in March.

The forecast of 126.0 in April, would place it just above the 124.75 midpoint of the 111.60 -137.90 post-election range. With the robust American economic background it is hard to find any reason to expect less.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Bulls keep the reins with eyes on 0.7000 ahead of China CPI/PPI

AUD/USD portrays a fourth attempt to pierce the key 0.7000 threshold. Broad US dollar weakness, upbeat equities and commodities helped Aussie to ignore pandemic fears. China inflation data, Australian housing market figures and US Jobless Claims to decorate the calendar.


Gold: Will it be a smooth journey to the all time high?

The daily chart shows an acceleration away from the top of the flag pattern. The price has now broken out of the blue resistance line which was the previous consolidation high back in 2011 after the price dropped from the all-time high.

Gold News

USD/JPY: There is a big Fib confluence target on the downside at 106.90

USD/JPY has been dropping steadily throughout the session and broke the previous wave low of 107.24. This makes a new lower low lower high formation on the hourly chart after the previous wave low was a resolute support zone.


WTI: Rounding bottom on hourly chart highlights $41.15

WTI stays mildly bid above $41.00 while remaining above 100-HMA. Multiple failures to cross $41.15 confront a bullish chart formation on a short timeframe. June month’s top, February low will be on the buyers’ radar after a successful break.

Oil News

Look East for market direction

When the stock market of the world’s second largest economy jumps more than 450 points, or 8%, in a week, it is time to sit up and take notice. The Shanghai Composite index, which acts as the benchmark for Chinese stocks, is now at 2018 levels.

Read more

Forex Majors