• Private payrolls expected to rise 648,000 in September.
  • August at 428,000 less than half the 950,000 forecast.
  • Correlation with Non-farm Payrolls has declined sharply post-COVID-19.
  • Market impact has declined with disconnect from NFP.

Private payrolls from Automatic Data Processing are forecast to rise by 648,000 in September after adding 428,000 in August.

Correlation declines

The correlation of the ADP employment change figures with Non-farm Payrolls, which is its chief market value, has fallen sharply in the five months since the recovery began in May.

ADP payrolls

FXStreet

Forecasts for both ADP and NFP missed the labor market turn in May.  Following the huge job losses in April predictions were for those to continue, ADP was expected to shed 9 million more workers and NFP 8 million.   In fact NFP gained 2.699 million employees that month while the initial ADP number showed a loss of 2.76 million positions.   It did not help ADP accuracy that the revision to the May number added 6.101 million bringing it to 3.341 million.

Similar discrepancies occurred in June, ADP initial result 2.369 million, NFP 4.971 million, ADP revision 4.485 million, and July ADP first release 167,000, NFP 1.734 million, ADP second release 212,000.

In August ADP was 428,000 and NFP was 1.371 million. The revision for August’s ADP will be issued with the September statistic.

Conclusion

The September estimates of 648,000 for ADP and 850,000 for NFP may represent a return of the historical relationship between these two US employment numbers. But even if these number end in agreement for September it will require more than one month or several until the markets trust ADP on Wednesday to front for NFP on Friday.

NFP 

FXStreet

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