Uncertain environment speaks for dollar

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

Representatives of both the ECB and the US Fed have recently emphasized the risks to the economy and thus fueled market expectations for monetary easing. However, the Fed's statements had more weight for the markets and the dollar weakened somewhat. All in all, however, the market remains directionless. We prefer the dollar in the coming months.

In June, the yen fluctuated against the euro in a stable range between 121 and 123. At its meeting at the end of June, the Japanese central bank made no changes to its loose monetary policy orientation in order to raise inflation towards 2% as soon as possible.

Due to the recent political developments in the United Kingdom, we expect a hard brexit at the end of October. This should increase the firming pressure of the Swiss franc in Q4 2019. We therefore expect the EURCHF exchange rate to reach a level of around 1.10 at the end of Q3 2019.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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