UK inflation data raises the probability of a BOE rate cut in coming months

Notes/Observations

- Awaiting the signing of the 1st phase of US/China trade deal; but no plans to cut China duties further at this time

- UK Dec CPI data builds case for a BOE rate cut in the coming months as Dec YoY registered its slowest annual pace since Nov 2016

- Germany overall 2019 GDP growth of 0.6% at its weakest level since 2013; Govt remains optimistic that outlook was improving

 

Asia:

- BOJ Regional Economic Report cut its assessment of 3 of 9 regions (maintained the other 6 as unchanged)

- BOJ Gov Kuroda reiterated at the Branch Manager's meeting that the domestic economy was on moderate expanding trend; CPI to gradually rise to target. Reiterated BOJ would not hesitate to take additional easing steps if risks grow and momentum towards CPI target was lost –

 

Americas:

- Treasury Sec Mnuchin stated that would review tariffs on China after phase 2 trade deal was signed; China has made strong commitments it will not manipulate its currency. There were no side agreements in phase 1 China trade deal; structural reforms under phase 2 trade deal could lead to additional Chinese purchases

- US officials said to have no plans to cut China duties further at this time. To verify China deal adherence of 'Phase 1' before considering further reduction of existing tariffs. Non-'Phase 1'-related tariffs to remain in place until after US election

Mid-East/ Energy:- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: +1.1M v -5.9M prior

 

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.02% at 419.48, FTSE +0.21% at 7,638.85, DAX -0.12% at 13,440.56, CAC-40 -0.04% at 6,038.49, IBEX-35 -0.42% at 9,488.00, FTSE MIB -0.34% 23,846.70, SMI -0.06% at 10,649.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.11%]

 

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

European indices mixed following Asia indices mostly lower and slightly lower US futures. ASM International rallying after yesterday announcing Q4 sales and orders that beat guidance. Jeronimo Martins up after reporting strong Q4 sales yesterday. Provident, Persimmon, Tullow Oil, Ashmore and Revolution Bars up on trading updates. CHR Hansen drops after trading update and cutting the top end of its previous organic revenue growth guidance range for FY19. Quiz tanks after reporting weaker than expected Christmas sales. Likewise, Vistry, Diploma and German Metro down on trading updates. Fraport down after reporting lower December passenger traffic levels y/y. On the M&A front, Altran up after CapGemini raised its bid for the company to €14.50/shr from €14.00/shr. Notable earners today include Bank of America, BlackRock, United Health, US Bancorp, Goldman Sachs and PNC Financial Services

 

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Metro [B4B.DE] +1% (prelim sales)

- Consumer staples: CHR Hansen [CHR.DK] -6% (earnings; cuts outlook)

- Energy: Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] +4% (trading update)

- Financials: Ashmore [ASHM.UK] +2% (trading update), Provident Financial [PFG.UK] +7% (trading update)

- Industrials: Persimmon [PSN.UK] +1.5% (trading update), Diploma [DPLM.UK] -3% (trading update)

- Technology: ASM International [ASM.NL] +9% (prelim earnings)

 

Speakers

- BOE's Saunders noted that the domestic economy was sluggish while inflation was subdued. Aggressive steps were needed given the limited BoE policy room. Saw little pick-up thus far in the post UK election environment

- ECB's Villeroy (France) reiterated stance that France growth was resilient with the impact from recent strikes seen at -0.1%

- ECB's Holzmann (Austria): Strategic review to begin next week

- France Budget Min Darmanin reiterated stance that govt to meet the 2019 budget deficit to GDP target of 3.1%

- German Stats Office: German economy showed signs of slight improvement in Q4

- Czech Central Bank official Benda (hawk, dissenter): Inflation expectations remain anchored. Inflation above central bank's target might be slower, but overall trajectory should not change

- Russia President Putin’s annual speech to the Federal Assembly stressed the need to resolve both social and economic issues faster

- Russia Energy Min Novak stated that he saw the next OPEC+ meeting taken place in March (**Note: downplayed speculation that meeting would be delayed by 3 months)

- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) reiterated its govt stance of promising to actively expand imports in 202. Look to increase soybean imports

 

Currencies/ Fixed Income

- Focus was on the upcoming ceremony at the White House for the signing of the US-China 1st phase of its trade agreement. The event was widely anticipated but attention was turning to the more difficult phase-2 stage. Risk appetite was a bit hesitant as US official noted that there were no plans to cut China duties further at this time until confirmation that China was abiding by the agreement.

- GBP/USD was back below the 1.30 level as UK Dec CPI data built the case for a BOE rate cut in the coming months as Dec YoY registered its slowest annual pace since Nov 2016. More BOE members talked about the need for stimulus. The odds of a Jan cut rose from 50% to 65% following the Dec inflation data and was fully pricing in a cut by Jun.

 

Economic Data

- (PE) Peru Dec Unemployment Rate: 6.1% V 6.3%e

- (PE) Peru Nov Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.4%e

- (NL) Netherlands Nov Trade Balance: €5.0B v €6.4B prior

- (NL) Netherlands Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.3% v 5.1% prior

- (FI) Finland Nov Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 2.2 v 1.0% prelim

- (FI) Finland Nov GDP Indicator Y/Y: 2.3% bv 1.9% prior

- (NO) Norway Dec Trade Balance (NOK): 25.6B v 17.9B prior

- (DK) Denmark Dec PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v -2.6% prior

- (FR) France Dec Final CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 104.39 v 104.35e

- (FR) France Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 1.6%e

- (ES) Spain Dec Final CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (ES) Spain Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e

- (ES) Spain Dec CPI Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%v 1.0% prior

- (TR) Turkey Dec Central Gov't Budget Balance (TRY): -30.7B v +7.8B prior

- (SE) Sweden Dec CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e

- (SE) Sweden Dec CPIF M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e

- (SE) Sweden Dec CPIF (ex-energy) M/M: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e

- (DE) Germany Overall 2019 GDP Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e (weakest annual growth since 2013); Budget to GDP Ratio: 1.5% v 1.2%e

- (PL) Poland Dec CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.8% prelim; Y/Y: 2.4% v 3.4% prelim

- (UK) Dec CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e (lowest annual pace since Nov 2016); CPI Core Y/: 1.4% v 1.7%e; CPIH Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e

- (UK) Dec RPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e; RPI-X (ex-mortgage Interest Payments) Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e; Retail Price Index: 291.9 v 292.2e

- (UK) Dec PPI Input M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.9%e

- (UK) Dec PPI Output M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e

- (UK) Dec PPI Output Core M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e

- (UK) Nov ONS House Price Index Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.0%e

- (IT) Italy Nov General Government Debt: €2.445T v €2.447T prior

- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -1.0%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Trade Balance (Seasonally Adj): €19.2B v €22.0Be; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): €20.7B v €28.0B prior

 

Fixed Income Issuance

- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 10-year OLO bond; guidance seen -5bps to mid-swaps

- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) opens book to sell EUR-denominated 30-year BTP; guidance seen +9bps to mid-swaps

- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK500M in 3-month and 6-month bills

- (IN) India sold total INR130B vs. INR130B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills

- (SE) Sweden sold SEK2.0B vs. SEK2.0B indicated in 2023 and 2029 bonds

- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 3.0% 2024 Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.38% v 1.31% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.83x v 3.20x prior

 

Looking Ahead

- (VN) Vietnam to sell combined VND3.5T in 7-year, 10-year, 15-year and 30-year Bonds

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.5B in 0% Aug 2050 Buxel

- 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell 6-month and 12-month bills

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Trade Balance: No est v €6.8B prior

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior

- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Retail Sales M/M: 2.8%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.3% prior

- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2023 and 2027 bonds

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 10th: No est v 13.5% prior

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Retail Sales M/M: 1.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 4.2% prior

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Broad Retail Sales M/M: 0.5%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 5.6% prior

- 07:00 (RU) Russia OFZ bond auction

- 08:00 (RO) Romania Central Bank (NBR) Dec Minutes

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Dec Official Reserve Assets: $548.0Be v $542.0B prior

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:30 (US) Jan Empire Manufacturing Index: 3.6e v 3.5 prior

- 08:30 (US) Dec PPI Final Demand MM: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.1% prior

- 08:30 (US) Dec PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: +0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior

- 08:30 (US) Dec PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior

- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Nov Trade Balance: No est v -€0.6B prior

- 09:00 (CA) Canada Dec Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 0.6% prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories

- 10:30 (FR) ECB's Villeroy (France) in Paris

- 11:00 (US) Fed's Harker in New York

- 11:30 (US) Expected signing of US-China phase Trade agreement in Washington

- 11:30 (IL) Israel Dec CPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior

- 12:00 (US) Fed's Kaplan at the Economic Club of New York

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell C$3.4B in 1.25% 2030 Bonds

- 14:00 (US) Fed Beige Book

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec National CPI M/M: 4.1%e v 4.3% prior; Y/Y: 54.4%e v 52.1% prior

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Retail Card Spending M/M: 0.1%e v 2.6% prior; Total Card Spending M/M: No est v 1.0% prior

- 18:30 (AU) Australia to sell A$1.5B in 3-month and 6-month bills

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov Core Machine Orders M/M: +2.9%e v -6.0% prior; Y/Y: -5.3%e v -6.1% prior

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec PPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.1% prior

- 19:01 (UK) Dec RICS House Price Balance: -5%e v -12% prior

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Nov Home Loans Value M/M: 1.4%e v 2.0% prior

- 20:10 (JP) BOJ Outright Bond Purchase operation for 5~10 Years maturities

- 20:30 (CN) China Dec New Home Prices M/M: No est v 0.3% prior

- 22:00 (KR) South Korea Nov M2 Money Supply M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; "L" Money Supply M/M: No est v 0.4% prior

- 22:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank to sell THB30B in 2021 bonds

- 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 12-Month Bills