Trump trades to the fore

General trend

- Today was always going to be dominated by the US election as early as results showed an apparently comfortable lead for Trump. ** Late calls by decision desks at time of this release called the election for Trump.

- The Senate has also been called for the Republican party, but as at the current time no news yet on the House congressional race totals.

- The dollar powered higher, with UST 10-yrs +14bps at 4.43% amid the US election showing early results breaking for Trump. USD/JPY +1.5% up two Big Handles.

- BTC/USD +8% hit All Time High at ~$74.800.

- Independent voter share of the turn-out broke 34%, equal with Republicans at 34%, and beating a major party for the first time with Democrats taking only 32% share of the voter turn-out.

- BOJ Minutes show the Board sees gradual raise of interest rates.

- New Zealand Q3 Unemployment was mixed with lower unemployment but employment change was worse than expected and a lower labour participation rate.

- Note: Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) as of yesterday now extends trading hours by 30 min, with a new close of 3:30 pm local time /06:30 am GMT).

- US equity FUTs +1.2% during the Asia session.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Wed Nov 6th US Elections results continue through Wed Asia time.

- Thu Nov 7th CN NPC-SCM , AU Sept Trade Bal, Sept JP Wage numbers, CN Trade Bal, (Thu night BOE & FOMC policy decisions).

- Fri Nov 8th CN NPC-SCM Final Day, (Fri night US Nov prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment).

- Sat Nov 9th CN CPI/PPI.

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Nov 4th Japan.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.6% at 8,177.

- Australia, UAE sign comprehensive economic partnership pact - financial press.

- New Zealand Q3 Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 5.0%e.

- Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: +4.8% v -0.3% prior.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens -1.0% at 20,791; Shanghai Composite opens +0.2% 3,395.

- China sells 2-year Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.3706% v .4779% prior.

- China state-owned banks seen selling USD, buying Yuan at 7.13 - traders.

- China PBOC Gov Pan: China to increase countercyclical monetary adjustments; To maintain accommodative monetary policy stance - Chinese press.

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.0993 v 7.1016 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY17B in 7-day reverse repos; Net CNY414B v net drains CNY365B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.5% at 38,677.

- Japan Oct Final Services PMI: 49.7 v 49.3 prelim (confirms 1st contraction in 4 months).

- Japan BOJ Sept Minutes (2 decisions ago): Many members noted that uncertainties had recently heightened.

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) announcement related to outright bond buying operations: For <1 Year; 1-3 Years, 3-5 Years and >25 Years (Inline with prior purchases).

- Japan Industrial Union UA Zensen said to target 6% wage increase in upcoming spring 2025 negotiations - financial press [overnight update].

- Former BOJ board member Sakurai: BOJ may hold till Jan 2025 given political, market uncertainty; Renewed yen falls could prod BOJ to hike as soon as Dec 2024; BOJ probably wants to hike rates once more by March next year [overnight update].

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.6% at 2,591.

Other Asia

- India Oct Final PMI Services: 58.5 v 57.9 prelim (confirms 39th month of expansion).

- Taiwan, UK launched new round of trade talks this week - Japanese press.

North America

- UST 10-yrs +14bps at 4.43% amid US election results.

- (US) Sept trade balance: -$84.4B V -$84.0BE.

- (US) Oct ISM services index: 56.0 V 53.8E (highest since late 2022); New Orders Index: 57.4 v 58.0e; Prices Paid: 58.1 v 58.0e; Employment: 53.0 v 48.0e.

- (US) Treasury's $42B 10-year note auction draws 4.347% V 3.960% prior; bid-to-cover ratio: 2.58 V 2.32 prior and 2.46 over the last 4 auctions; Stops through the When issued of 4.350%.

- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Oct Summary of Deliberations: 'Increasingly confident' upward CPI pressures continue to weaken; Outsize rate cut appropriate considering soft labor market and considerable economic slack.

Europe

- (UK) NIESR [think-tank] Sees Bank of England (BOE) key rate setting at 3.25% in 2026 – financial press.

- (UK) UK Govt: Highly pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N5 confirmed in commercial poultry premises near Hornsea, East Riding of Yorkshire.

- (IT) Italy Central Bank (BoI): Govt 2024 and 2025 GDP growth target appears more difficult to achieve.

- (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS): Main risk to banking sector stability is possible escalation of tensions in Ukraine and Middle East.

- (DE) Germany Oct New Car Registrations +6% v -7% y/y prior - KBA.

- (IL) Israel PM Netanyahu fired Def Min Gallant, citing differences over the war; Appoints Foreign Min Israel Katz as new Def Min.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +2.2%, ASX 200 +0.8%, Hang Seng -2.2%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi -0.5%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +1.2%; Nasdaq100 +1.2%; Dax -0.7%; FTSE100 +0.2.

- EUR 1.0715-1.0938; JPY 151.10-152.55; AUD 0.6579-0.6602; NZD 0.5967-0.5986.

- Gold -0.8% at $2,725/oz; Crude Oil -2.1% at $70.45/brl; Copper -2.7% at $4.3432/lb.