Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD the battle of wills continues with bulls not ready to give up

XAU/USD Current price: $5,021

• Tepid United States data keeps the US Dollar near its weekly lows.
• Market participants await the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report.
• XAU/USD treads water above $5,000 with bulls holding the grip but on pause.

The battle of wills between buyers and sellers continues. The Gold price has spent most of Tuesday confined within Monday’s range and is currently struggling to hold above $5,000, unable to surpass last week’s peak at $5,092. The ongoing consolidative stage gives bulls some hope, who would like to see an interim bottom confirmed to add longs.

The direction of the XAU/USD pair appears to be driven solely by US Dollar (USD) strength/weakness, with market participants setting aside their sentiment. As the Greenback remains pressured, Gold remains afloat regardless of a modestly optimistic market mood.

USD pressure comes from the United States (US) data, tepid to say the least. ADP reported that, on average, the private sector added 6,500 new jobs in the four weeks ending January 24, up from 5,000 in the previous week. Other than that,

The 4-week average of the US ADP Employment Change rose to 6.5K on the four weeks ending January 24, up from 5K previously. This marked the third consecutive weekly expansion and the highest level since the week ending January 3. Additionally, Retail Sales remained unchanged in December, below expectations for a 0.4% increase and below November’s 06% advance.

Market players are unlikely to push XAU/USD far from its current levels, ahead of the release of the January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Wednesday. The US is expected to have added 70,000 new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen steady at 4.4%. The employment report will be followed by an inflation update on Friday, both of which are relevant for the Federal Reserve (Fed).

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Spot Gold appears to be recovering its bullish poise after bottoming at around $4,400 early in February. Last week's peak at around $5,092 stands as an immediate barrier, yet once beyond it, XAU/USD is likely to grind back toward record highs. The near-picture shows that the upward momentum receded. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators have trended lower, although they remain above their midlines. At the same time, the pair remains above a bullish 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which converges with a mildly positive 100-period SMA at around $4,980.

The daily chart reflects fading upward momentum, but it's far from suggesting sellers are near taking control. XAU/USD remains above all bullish moving averages, with the 20-day SMA maintaining its firmly bullish slope far above the 100- and 200-day SMA. Technical indicators turned modestly lower, but remain within positive levels, with the recent declines reflecting the lack of follow-through rather than suggesting increased selling pressure. A break through $5,092 is now critical for buyers aiming for a retest of record highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)