Trump admin hints at an anti-trust intermission before credits roll on Netflix/Warner deal

EU Mid-Market Update: Trump admin hints at an anti-trust intermission before credits roll on Netflix/Warner deal; Oracle results and GPT-5.2 release might be important than FOMC this week.

Notes/observations

-Quiet session leaves focus ahead for Fed’s rate decision on Weds, expected to cut 25bps.

-Both German industrial production and Euro Zone Sentix confidence beat consensus slightly.

-For trade updates, weekend US-China talks confirmed Beijing compliance; US team travel to India this week; Macron warned China tariffs on EU imbalance.

-After Trump weighed in on Netflix/Warner deal, hinting at some objections and antitrust oversight, Netflix climbed +1% in premarket while Warner is down ~3%. Analysts see potential of delaying transaction to 18 months.

-Japan Q3 GDP was revised lower in final print, showing bigger contraction. Oct labor cash earnings were elevated.

-Korean press reports Nvidia’s drive to boost Rubin’s performance is increasing technical complexity around HBM4 and related components, and with SK Hynix reportedly delaying its HBM4 mass-production ramp to roughly March-April 2026, industry sources now see a higher risk that full-scale Rubin rollout slips.

-OpenAI has reportedly pulled forward its GPT-5.2 release to tomorrow, Dec 9th as an early answer to Google’s Gemini 3, underscoring intensifying competitive pressure in frontier models. Meanwhile, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, meanwhile, warns that some players are “YOLO” overextending with massive, chip-backed circular financing deals and unrealistic revenue assumptions for 2027–28, arguing instead for more cautious investment and predicting a gradual, continuous ramp in model capabilities rather than a single AGI “big bang” moment.

-TTN Note: Oracle’s still-unannounced jumbo AI debt package, estimated around $38 billion, is emerging as the quiet candidate for the next DeepSeek-style market shock in an industry already trapped in an AI capex prisoner’s dilemma. With Oracle’s results due this week on Dec 10th, any confirmation or launch of this massive financing in the following days could significantly reshuffle expectations around balance-sheet risk, sector leverage, and the sustainability of hyperscale AI spending, especially if GPT-5.2 release disappoints.

-Asia closed mixed with KOSPI outperforming +1.3%. EU indices mixed with -0.1% to +0.1%. US futures 0.0% to +0.2%. Gold +0.3%, DXY 0.0%; Commodity: Brent -0.8%, WTI -0.9%; Crypto: BTC +2.9%, ETH +3.0%

Asia

- China Nov Foreign Reserves: $3.346Tt v $3.343T prior.

- China Nov Trade Balance: $111.7B v $103.1Be; Exports Y/Y: 5.9% v 4.0%e ; Imports Y/Y: 1.9% v 3.0%e v 1.0% prior.

- Japan Oct Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.2%e; Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.2%e.

-Japan Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v -0.5%e; GDP Annualized Q/Q: -2.3% v -2.0%e.

- Japan Oct Current Account Balance:¥2.834T v ¥3.130Te; Trade Balance (BoP Basis): ¥98.3B v ¥200.5Be.

- Japan Nov Bank Lending Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.1% prior; Bank Lending (Ex-Trusts) Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.4% prior.

- China Politburo reiterated stance that monetary policy to be moderately loose with fiscal policy being more proactive. Would achieve 2025 economic targets and noted that economic operation was generally stable. To expand domestic demand and insisted it would be the main driver. To continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas.

Global conflict/tensions

- US envoy says Ukraine peace deal was close but Moscow says it wants radical changes.

- Japan Defense Min: Chinese jets directed radar at Japanese fighters twice near Okinawa;

Europe

- ECB Rehn noted that inflation risk was slightly tilted to the downside in the medium term. To keep full freedom of action on rates.

Americas

- US Tsy Sec Bessent: US to finish year with 3.0% GDP growth despite recent govt shutdown.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/Commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.03% at 578.94, FTSE +0.04% at 9,670.60, DAX +0.16% at 24,077.67, CAC-40 -0.10% at 8,106.85, IBEX-35 -0.05% at 16,680.17, FTSE MIB +0.01% at 43,432.00, SMI +0.44% at 12,990.40, S&P 500 Futures +0.10%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices opened generally lower and failed to gain momentum in the early hours of trading; trade taking up headlines as Macron threatens tariffs on China after visit to country; better performing sectors include energy and health care; among sectors inclined to the downside are consumer discretionary and materials; L’Oreal doubled its stake in Galderma; BNP sold its stake in AG Insurance to Ageas; TotalEnergies consolidates its UK Upstream business with stake in NEO NEXT from Repsol; Wordline considering divesting Paymentiq; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Toll Brothers.

Equities

- Financials: BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] +1.0% (divestment).

- Healthcare: Galderma [GALD.CH] +2.5% (L'Oreal investment), Unilever [UNA.NL] +1.0% (spinoff starts trading), Circio [CRNA.NO] -9.0% (rights issue).

- Industrials: Kloeckner [KLK.DE] +25.0% (Worthington Steel confirms in negotiations with Klöckner & Co SE about a potential voluntary public takeover offer), Stabilus [STM.DE] -5.5% (earnings; guidance).

- Technology: IQE [IQE.UK] +3.0% (contract extension).

Speakers

- ECB's Schnabel (Germany) stated that she was comfortable with bets that next move would be a rate hike; Reiterated Council view that rates were unlikely to change anytime soon; could tolerate moderate deviations from inflation target.

- German Automakers Association VDA: 2026 new car market growth seen +2% y/y.

- China Pres Xi noted that 2025 had been unusual but would smoothly meet economic goals this year; To reinforce economic growth momentum

Currencies/fixed income

- Focus on rate decision during the week. Market quite confident that Fed would deliver a 25bps cut on Wed. Dealers note would also looks for clues on the rate path ahead.

- EUR/USD at 1.1650 by mid-session. Pair drifted higher after ECB’s Schnabel noted that she believed the next ECB rate move would be higher.

- USD/JPY at 155.45 by mid-session. Japanese govt speak continued to caution any excessive, one-sided movement in the pair. The 160 area remains key resistance.

- 10-year German Bund yield at 2.82%, France 10-year Oat at 3.55% and 10-year Gilt yield at 4.50% 10-year Treasury yield: 4.15%.

Central Bank rate decisions expected during the week

WED (Dec 10th).

- 09:45 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision.

-14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision.

- 16:30 (BR) Brazil Central bank (BCB) Interest Rate Decision

Thurs (Dec 11th).

- 01:30 (PH) Philippines Central Banbk (BSP) Interest Rate Decision.

- 03:30 (CH) SNB Interest Rate Decision.

- 06:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision.

- 07:00 (UR) Ukraine Central Bank (NBU) Interest Rate Decision.

- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank (BCRP Interest Rate Decision.

Economic data

- (DE) Germany Oct Industrial Production M/M: 1.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: +0.8% v -0.4%e.

- (DK) Denmark Oct Industrial Production M/M: -3.5% v +8.6% prior.

- (FI) Finland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: +€0.2 v -€0.5B prior.

- (CH) Swiss Nov SECO Consumer Confidence: -33.8 v -34.0e.

- (CZ) Czech Oct Industrial Output Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.9%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 7.1% v 13.1% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Oct National Trade Balance (CZK): 26.0B v 18.7Be.

-(CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 461.9B v 458.5B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 440.5B v 437.3B prior.

-(CZ) Czech Nov Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.6%e.

- (IS) Iceland Nov Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -31.4B v -24.1B prior.

- (SG) Singapore Nov Foreign Reserves: $400.0B v $393.2B prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Sentix Investor Confidence: -6.2 v -6.3e.

- (HU) Hungary Nov YTD Budget Balance (HUF): T v -3.667T prior.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.5B in 12-month BuBills.

- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills.

- 05:00 (PL) Poland to sell Fixed-rate Bonds.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell combined ILS2.5B in 2028, 2029, 2033, 2034, 2035 and 2052 bonds.

- 06:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Vehicle Production: No est v 367.9K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 314.2K prior.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Vehicle Production: No est v 247.7K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 260.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 40.6K prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.9=7.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12.

- 10:00 (IT) ECB Cipolline (Italy).

- 11:00 (US) Nov NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations: No est v 3.2% prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (FR) ECB’s Villeroty (France).

- 12:00 (UK) BOE’s Taylor.

- 12:00 (UK) BOE’s Lambardelli.

- 13:00 Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes.

- 18:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 85.5 prior.

- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 1.0% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Nov BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: 2.5%e v 1.5% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Nov NAB Business Confidence: No est v 6 prior; Business Conditions: No est v 9 prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland Nov Construction PMI: No est v 48.1 prior.

- 22:00 (ID) Indonesia Nov Consumer Confidence: No est v 121.2 prior.

- 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills.

-22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 5-Year JGB Bonds.

- 22:30 (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 3.60%.