OpenAI on track for $100B of new funding, amid AI Summit in India

EU mid-market update: OpenAI on track for $100B of new funding, amid AI Summit in India; Middle-east tensions persist after US places more military assets in region; Airbus disappointed with weak delivery guidance.

Notes/observations

- AI and big tech remain central to the risk-on narrative, with a report that OpenAI is on track to raise >$100B in new round of funding underscoring the scale of capital still chasing AI. Reports put OpenAI valuation at ~$850B. US equities closed higher, led by Amazon and Nvidia after news of a multi-year processor supply deal with Meta announced day before, while in Asia Samsung hit new highs on HBM4 price hikes even as Advantest fell on a cyberattack. European indices are consolidating off record highs, with miners and Airbus weighing, whereas the Kospi and ASX pushed to fresh records.

- Rates and FX price a stickier inflation and slower easing path. Fed minutes showed several officials still open to another hike if inflation stalls, and most houses now expect only two cuts from mid-year. US dollar trades near a two-week high, supported by firmer Treasury yields ahead of PCE and GDP, while Bund yields edge up into heavy eurozone supply and PMIs. Swiss franc (CHF) stays bid as the SNB resists going back to negative rates, EUR/CHF trades near multi-year lows, and the euro (EUR) looks vulnerable if Friday’s PMIs confirm a weak recovery.

- Geopolitics are driving a broad safe-haven and commodity bid. Brent and WTI extend a >4% rally on rising US-Iran tension and the largest US air-power build-up in the region since 2003. European TTF gas gains again on LNG risks through the Strait of Hormuz against a backdrop of tightening EU storage, partly offset by warmer weather and renewables.

- The USS Gerald R. Ford is currently transiting at 18–25 knots and is projected to reach operational striking distance as soon as tomorrow, potentially enabling a dual-carrier surge alongside the USS Abraham Lincoln to exceed 300 daily sorties. This maritime movement is synchronized with a massive airpower buildup, including 50 additional fighter jets - featuring F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s - reaching the region within the last 24 hours to provide SEAD and package leadership. While some advisers suggest a 90% chance of kinetic action in the coming weeks, the scale of this "air armada" suggests a campaign far broader than previous pinpoint operations, aiming to target Iran's strategic depth if diplomacy finally fails during the 2026 Ramadan period.

- NYT reports that President Putin is reportedly prepared for an 18-month to 2-year campaign to secure the Donbas, banking on daily strikes against energy infrastructure to gain long-term leverage. While ISW predicts major offensives toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk by May-June 2026, independent analysts suggest a full takeover could take 4-5 years, especially after Ukraine reclaimed 200+ square kilometers this month.

- OpenAI is reportedly nearing the finalization of a $100 billion funding round that would value the company at over $850 billion, with strategic commitments expected from Amazon, SoftBank, Nvidia, and Microsoft by the end of February 2026.

- Gold has reclaimed the $5,000 handle and silver is firmer as investors add defensive exposure amid inconclusive US-Iran nuclear talks and lean speculative positioning.

- Notable EU news: Mondi and Nestle both leaned into efficiency and portfolio focus, while Pernod Ricard continues to struggle with inventory and Americas-specific issues. Rio Tinto beat on revenue and EBITDA with a 60% payout but may suffer from “good, not great” optics post-BHP; Centrica sold off on weaker optimization earnings and the end of buybacks despite a solid medium-term outlook. Airbus delivered slightly better-than-expected Q4 EBIT but set softer-than-hoped 2026 delivery and cash-flow targets due to Pratt & Whitney engine shortages, in contrast to a strong Air France-KLM print with firmer unit cost control, higher long-haul capacity and an 11% share price jump. Renault’s new 2026 margin and 5–7% medium-term range are seen as ambitious but credible, reinforcing the view it has one of the more robust strategic responses to Chinese competition.

- Epstein Fallout: Bill Gates reportedly skipped attendance at AI Summit in New Delhi, India due to Epstein file drama, while BBC reported that former UK Prince, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested this morning over ‘misconduct’ (also reported by Sky News).

- Asia closed higher with KOSPI outperforming +3.1%. EU indices -0.6% to -1.2%. US futures -0.2% to -0.3%. Gold +0.2%, DXY -0.1%; Commodity: Brent +1.4%, WTI +1.5%; Crypto: BTC -1.3%, ETH -1.4%.

Asia

- Japan Dec Core Machine Orders M/M: 19.1% v 5.0%e; Y/Y: 16.8% v 3.9%e.

- Australia Jan Employment Change: +17.8K v 20.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.2%e.

- RBNZ Assist Gov Silk: Central scenario was the easing cycle was over, risks on either side.

- IMF Article IV statement: Urged China to shift to consumption as an overarching priority; Warned of adverse spillovers from China's reliance on exports.

Taiwan

- US arms sale to Taiwan reportedly put on hold as China govt exerts pressure and White House worries it could derail Beijing visit in April.

Global Conflict/tensions

- Trump administration said to be much closer to a major military conflict in the Middle East than many Americans realize.

- White House Press Secretary Leavitt noted that diplomacy was Trump’s first option, but that Iran would be wise to make a deal and that there were ‘many reasons’ one could make to strike Iran.

Americas

- FOMC Jan Minutes had several members seeing more rate cuts if inflation declined as expected; Majority judged labor markets showed signs of stabilization. Most members had cautioned that disinflation could be slower than expected.

- FOMC Minutes revealed that the NY Fed had conducted a rate check on USDJPY on behalf of the US Treasury.

- Fed's Barr (voter): Many reasons to be concerned inflation will remain high; Want evidence goods inflation is dropping before additional rate cuts.

Energy:

- Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories: -0.6M v +13.4M prior.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.53% at 625.34, FTSE -0.62% at 10,619.70, DAX -0.92% at 25,054.56, CAC-40 -0.78% at 8,362.96, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 18,106.12, FTSE MIB -0.98% at 45,908.50, SMI +0.07% at 13,821.20, S&P 500 Futures -0.22%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened generally lower and remained under pressure through the early part of the session; risk appetite seen affected by geopolitical concerns; among sectors managing to stay in the green are health care and telecom; sectors leading the way lower include utilities and materials; oil & gas subsector supported amid surge in crude prices over tensions with Iran; focus on US trade balance coming out later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Walmart, Deere, Kleppiere and Hochtief.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Nestle [NESN.CH] +3.0% (earnings), Air France KLM [AIR.FR] +15.5% (earnings).

- Consumer staples: Pernod Ricard [RI.FR] +0.5% (earnings).

- Materials: Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] -3.5% (earnings).

- Industrials: Airbus [AIR.FR] -6.5% (earnings), Rheinmetall [RHM.DE] +1.0% (Russia Pres Putin said to be convinced that even if it takes 18 months to two years to complete his hold on the Donbas region, each day of fighting and each night of Russian missiles and drones raining down on energy infrastructure and apartment buildings secure him more leverage), Volkswagen [VOW3.DE] -1.5% (German press report on risky accounting practices at VW), Renault [RNO.FR] -3.5% (earnings).

- Technology: ASML [ASML.NL] -1.0% (OpenAI said to be on track to raise >$100B in latest round of financing deal; First portion to be finalized this month).

- Telecom: Orange [ORA.FR] +4.0% (earnings).

Speakers

- ECB Economic Bulletin reiterated that was determined to ensure that inflation stabilizes at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.

- ECB chief Lagarde said to have told colleagues she was focused on her job. Would tell them first if she was to resign.

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank): Taking measures to facilitate bank liquidity management.

- Philippines Central Bank Policy Statement noted that it would continue to be vigilant and guided by incoming data. To ensure settings were in line with price stability, GDP growth and employment.

- CPI outlook was manageable and to return to target by 2027.

- Indonesia Central Bank Policy Statement noted it would continue assessing room for rate cuts by considering inflation and need for higher GDP growth. Policy orientation was towards stability and economic growth. To strengthen IDR currency (Rupiah) stabilization in onshore and offshore markets. Room for further rate cuts remained open and was data dependent.

- IAEA Dir Gen Grossi: "Not much time" to reach Iran nuclear deal.

Currencies/fixed income

- USD was steady during the session. The greenback has strengthen during the week aided by a combination of stronger than expected macro data and a notable dispersion in policy outlook among Fed members in the recent FOMC minutes. Markets having some doubts about the prospects for more Fed rate cuts.

- EUR/USD at 1.1800 area in quiet trading. Little in terms of key European data to move the compass.

- USD/JPY drifted higher to test 155 area. FOMC Minutes revealed that the NY Fed had conducted a rate check on USDJPY on behalf of the US Treasury. This makes the 1.60 resistance even more key.

- 10-year German Bund yield last at 2.75%, France 10-year Oat at 3.32% and 10-year Gilt yield at 4.39% 10-year Treasury yield: 4.09%; 10-year JGB: 2.13%.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Jan Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Feb Consumer Confidence: -24 v -23 prior.

- (FI) Finland Jan CPI M/M: -0.2% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.2% prior.

- (FI) Finland Dec House Price Index M/M: -1.7% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -4.5% v -2.2% prior.

- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) cut Overnight Borrowing rate by 25bps to 4.25% (as expected).

- (CH) Swiss Jan Trade Balance (CHF): 3.8B v 3.0B prior; Real Exports M/M: 3.6% v 0.1% prior; Real Imports M/M: +1.0% v -0.3% prior; Watch Exports Y/Y: % v +3.3% prior.

- (TR) Turkey Feb Consumer Confidence: 85.7 v 83.7 prior.

- (DK) Denmark Feb Consumer Confidence: -13.1 v -13.4 prior.

- (ES) Spain Dec Trade Balance: -€5.6B v -€5.7B prior.

- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) left BI Rate unchanged at 4.75% (as expected).

- (CH) Swiss Q4 Industrial Output Y/Y: -0.7% v 2.0% prior; Industry & Construction Output Y/Y: -0.3% v +1.4% prior.

- (ES) Spain Dec Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: 30.1% v 24.4% prior; Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: 17.4% v 12.4% prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Current Account Balance: €14.6B v €8.9B prior.

- (PT) Portugal Dec Current Account Balance: -€0.8B v +€1.1B prior.

- (IT) Italy Dec Current Account Balance: +€3.1B v -€1.3B prior.

- (PL) Poland Jan Sold Industrial Output M/M: -6.0% v -3.0%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v 1.7%e; Construction Output Y/Y: % v -5.0%e.

- (PL) Poland Jan Employment M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.7%e.

- (PL) Poland Jan Average Gross Wages M/M: -6.1% v -4.8%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 7.1%e.

- (PL) Poland Jan PPI M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.3%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Construction Output M/M: +0.9% v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: % v -1.4% prior.

- (BE) Belgium Feb Consumer Confidence: 1 v 4 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.43B vs. €4.5—5.5B indicated range in 2029, 2031 and 2036 SPGB bonds.

- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €13.497B vs. €11.5-13.5B indicated range in 2029, 2031, 2032 bonds.

Looking ahead

- (AR) Argentina Feb Consumer Confidence: No est v 46.6 prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-year, 5-year and 10-year bonds.

- 05:40 (UK) BOE 7-day short-term repo operation (STR).

- 05:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €1.0-1.5B in inflation-linked2032, 2034 and 2040 bonds (Oatei).

- 06:00 (UK) Feb CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -28e v -30 prior; Selling Prices: 23e v 29 prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan CPI M/M: No est v 0.5% rpior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Final CPI Harmonized M/M: No est v -1.0% prelim; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prelim.

- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jan PPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.2% prior.

- 06:00 (DE) German Bundesbank Monthly Report.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: -0.4%ev +0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.3% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Gold Production: No est v 5.6K prior; Silver Production: No est v 328.5K prior; Copper Production: No est v 41.1K prior.

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Feb 13th: No est v $797.5B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Feb Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 7.8e v 12.6 prior.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 225Ke v 227K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.86Me v 1.862M prior.

- 08:30 (US) Dec Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$86.0Be v -$84.7B prior (revised from -$85.5B); Exports M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Imports M/M: No est v -7.0% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Dec Trade Balance: -$55.5Be v -$56.8B prior; Exports M/M: +0.1%e v -3.6% prior; Imports M/M: 0.1%e v 5.0% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Dec Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: 0.2%e.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Int'l Merchandise Trade (CAD): -2.1Be v -2.2B prior.

- 08:20 (US) Fed’s Bostic.

- 10:00 (US) Jan Pending Home Sales M/M: +2.0%e v -9.3% prior; Y/Y: +3.0%e v -1.3% prior.

- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Feb Advance Consumer Confidence: -12.0e v -12.4 prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- 10:30 (US) Fed's Goolsbee gives Opening Remarks.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 30-Year TIPS.

- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Trade Balance: $0.6Be v $1.9B prior.

- 16:00 (US) President Trump on economy.

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Jan Trade Balance (NZD): No est v 0.1B prior; Exports: No est v 7.65B prior; Imports: No est v 7.60B prior.

- 17:00 (AU) Australia Feb Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.3 prior; PMI Services: No est v 56.3 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 55.7 prior.

- 18:00 (NZ) RBNZ Gov Bremen.

- 18:30 (JP) Japan Jan National CPI Y/Y: 1.6%e v 2.1% prior; CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.4% prior; CPI (ex-fresh food/energy) Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.9% prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Feb Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.5 prior; PMI Services: No est v 53.7 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 53.1 prior.

- 22:00 (KR) South Korea Q4 Household Credit (KRW): No est v 1,968.3T prior.

- 22:00 (ID) Indonesia Q4 Current Account Balance: -$2.4Be v +$4.0B prior.

- 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Jan Trade Balance (MYR): 10.1Be v 19.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: 14.0%e v 10.4% prior; Imports Y/Y: 10.0%e v 12.0% prior.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.