Traders Radar – FX & Gold

Russell Sandiford Reiwa-Capital.com

We have not been disappointed so far by the frenzy of Forex & Commodity market action.

Let’s start with Gold: $1,489

Slapped lower to see $1,484 after a US Treasury led selldown in the precious metal with the backdrop of the Fed & Trade Truce also playing their parts towards dragging on Gold sentiment.

‘Risk-on’ market moves can continue to pressure the safe havens Gold & Yen – that’s my call.

What’s on my Traders Radar to play this market action?

AUD/JPY – Remains a Buy after my call yesterday and cemented now that the Aussie inflation data hit the newswires and was firm.
This should be enough to keep AUD/JPY Bid ahead of a likely ‘Rate Hold’ from the RBA on Tuesday next week.
Trade “progress” has been reinforced from both the US & China trade camps, helping keep AUD elevated as a risk proxy.

Should we fix our trading attention towards SP500 or play in Forex Majors?

With so much more emphasis on this week’s US Fed interest rate decision, (being that it is likely the end of a series of 3x rate cuts), the USD is about to be set alight.

Let’s not forget that we also get the latest Jobs report Friday, plus the ISM manufacturing numbers afterwards. Get ready for USD to be set alight – higher in my view.

Let’s also not disregard the Bank of Canada & Bank of Japan are set to update the markets in the next 24 hours also. Like I said, action everywhere.

The ADP “interim” jobs data is revealed in today’s US dealing session, but most analysts agree that the headline NFP can be a sour 90k new jobs added number – led by some job strikes weighing on the total.

points to watch for Forex traders:

Markets will react more to the Wage Growth metric in Friday’s payroll report and the US unemployment, so place more emphasis on how far offside those numbers are.
Traders will run with the US Fed press conference forward guidance more than anything this week – so if we hear the phrase “ending our mid cycle adjustment” (or) “Data dependant” then the USD will rally as I anticipate.
Gold could lead the way towards $1,460 as USD buyers come off the sidelines, with the added backdrop of trade progress supporting lower lows in Gold

FX Position Idea

Entry Pair:
USD/JPY

BUY

Entry at: 108.80

Target: 109.65 (+85 pips)

Stop Loss: 108.00 (-80 pips)

Author

Russell Sandiford

Reiwa-Capital.com

Russell Sandiford is one of the most reputable market analysts in Australia with over 16 years’ experience in the global FX, indices and commodities markets.

EUR/USD deflates to fresh lows, targets 1.1600

The selling pressure on EUR/USD now gathers extra pace, prompting the pair to hit fresh multi-week lows in the 1.1625-1.1620 band on Friday. The continuation of the downward bias comes in response to further gains in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess the mixed release of US Nonfarm Payrolls in December.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold flirts with yearly tops around $4,500

Gold keeps its positive bias on Friday, adding to Thursday’s advance and challenging yearly highs in the $4,500 region per troy ounce. The risk-off sentiment favours the yellow metal despite the firmer tone in the Greenback and rising US Treasury yields.