The lackluster Euro upmove is not really out of keeping with the environment
It’s hard not to see central banks in disarray. Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates in a surprise move and the krona went up. In the US, Atlanta Fed Bostic said there is no need for another rate cut and new member Miran said we need five. Powell speaks at noon today with some holding their breath, which is inconsistent with what we know about Fed chiefs and especially Powell.
In Japan, yesterday we saw some reports indicating the probability of the rate hike in October going up, if not exactly rip-roaring. The party election is Oct 4, which should make no difference to the BoJ but you never know.
Forecast
The lackluster euro upmove is not really out of keeping with the environment, which consists of one uncertainty after another. The pile of uncertainties is turning into a mountain. No wonder gold is setting new highs. The best we can offer is that the trendline is to the upside, although it will be a bitterly fought journey to 1.20 and above. On the downside, we are not likely to see anything much below 1.1650, where prices are clustered over the past few weeks. ECR Research has 1.1500.
All this flies out the window if yields resume their climb. As noted last week, the 10-year at 4.5% and above derails the euro forecasts. And when in doubt, consider the cross-rates. The euro looks good against the pound and CHF.
This is an excerpt from “The Rockefeller Morning Briefing,” which is far larger (about 10 pages). The Briefing has been published every day for over 25 years and represents experienced analysis and insight. The report offers deep background and is not intended to guide FX trading. Rockefeller produces other reports (in spot and futures) for trading purposes.
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This is an excerpt from “The Rockefeller Morning Briefing,” which is far larger (about 10 pages). The Briefing has been published every day for over 25 years and represents experienced analysis and insight. The report offers deep background and is not intended to guide FX trading. Rockefeller produces other reports (in spot and futures) for trading purposes.
To get a two-week trial of the full reports plus traders advice for only $3.95. Click here!
Author
Barbara Rockefeller
Rockefeller Treasury Services, Inc.
Experience Before founding Rockefeller Treasury, Barbara worked at Citibank and other banks as a risk manager, new product developer (Cititrend), FX trader, advisor and loan officer. Miss Rockefeller is engaged to perform FX-relat
