Raj Ian G Thijm, MBA
Raj Time and Cycles
NDX is at long term channel support, a break below could trigger the Flash Crash cycle wave due in December 2018
I have written extensively about my discovery of the Flash Crash (FC) cycle in past posts
I first mentioned the Flash Crash cycle back in May 2010, when the Flash Crash happened and I discovered then there was a regular Flash Crash cycle, which is a Gann 360 TD/525 Calender day/75 week crash cycle.
On September 2011 for example, the FC cycle was predicting an October 2011 FC Low
Actual: We saw an 10/4/11 major Low
The Flash Crash 525 CD cycle
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11L = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.
The Flash Crash 75 week cycle
04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks
04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks
04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks
04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks
04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks
04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks
04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks
7 out of 9 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
04/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
09/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks
The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.
Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows. At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.
Conclusion: The 360 TD Flash Crash Cycle predicted many crashes and major Lows in the past, including the 4/14/00 crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/13 Low, 8/13/04 Low, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 FC, 10/04/11 crash Low, 1/20/16 Crash Low and now again in December 2018 Lows. Some were misses, but in general, it is a regular cycle to be reckoned with.The Flash crash (FC) cycle, once active sees an average 12-14% decline in a few weeks. As the Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a 1 1/2 year fixed cycle, it will have a +/- variance of a few weeks, so timing the exact Low will be Key as once the Flash Crash cycle bottoms, we will see a sharp rally afterwards.
Trading in Stocks, ETF, Options and Futures involve risks. Trade at your own Risk. Do your own homework. The contents of this blog are for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment advice strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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