Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The central bank doves are forcefully back following a significantly lower-than-expected US JOLTS print, and on the back of a surprisingly dovish comment from an otherwise… hawkish Isabel Schnabel from the European Central Bank (ECB).
Due today, the ADP is expected to print 130K private job additions in the US last month, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast is expected to hint at a sharp decline in Q4 growth to 1.2% from above 5% printed last quarter. If that’s the case, the Fed doves will remain in charge of the market, but the everything rally will likely turn into a… bond rally as we are now at a juncture where the bond optimism might only persist with increased recession probabilities, which doesn't bode well for equity appetite.
The S&P500 closed slightly lower, gold saw support near $2000 per ounce and the EURUSD slipped into the bearish consolidation zone after clearing a critical Fibonacci support.
Crude oil remains sold in a lower-highs-lower-lows pattern and the Chinese CSI 300 sinks to the lowest levels in almost 5 years after Moody’s lowered the country’s sovereign outlook.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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EUR/USD turns positive and reaches 1.0300
The resurgence of the selling pressure in the US Dollar now motivates EUR/USD to regain some fresh traction and test the 1.0300 region on Thursday, as investors continue to warm up for Trump 2.0.
GBP/USD treads water around 1.2230
In quite an apathetic day in the FX galaxy, GBP/USD hovers around the 1.2230 area in a context of subdued price action in the Greenback and further correction in UK 10-year gilt yields.
Gold on its way to test record highs
Prices of Gold advances further and manage to reclaim the key $2,700 mark per ounce troy on Thursday in response to the absence of traction in the US Dollar and diminishing US yields across the board.
Bitcoin holds near $100K ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration
Bitcoin's price edges slightly lower and trades around $99,200 on Thursday after rallying 4% following the previous day’s US CPI release. Despite this recent rise in BTC prices, traders should keep watch on US Retail Sales data for December on Thursday, as it could provide more volatility.
Eurozone industrial production ticked up in November
The slight 0.2% rise in production from October is insufficient to indicate a reversal of the two-year downward trend. Overall, the outlook for industry remains quite weak at the start of the year.
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