EUR/USD Price Forecast: Stable ahead of US CPI data

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1872

• Upbeat US employment data interrupted the US Dollar decline.
• US CPI schedule for Friday could be a make it or break it for the USD.
• EUR/USD near-term picture hints at mounting selling pressure.

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1880 early in the American session, maintaining modest intraday gains. The US Dollar (USD) shrugged of most of its persistent weakness, following the release of upbeat employment figures. The January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Wednesday showed that the United States (US) added 130K new job positions in the month, much better than the 70K expected. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate shrank to 4.3% from the 4.4% posted in December.

Other than that, financial markets have little to work with on Thursday, as the macroeconomic calendar has no relevant figures to offer. The US will release weekly unemployment data, with Initial Jobless Claims foreseen at 222K in the week ending February 7, down from the 231K posted in the previous week. The country will also report Existing Home Sales for the same month.

Consolidation is likely to continue ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) January figures on Friday. Other than that, it’s worth remembering the US could face yet another partial shutdown, as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will run out of funding on Feb 13. It may not have a direct impact on financial markets, but it still spells trouble for the USD.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades with a soft tone. The pair slid below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), but remains above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, with all three sloping higher. The 20-period SMA at 1.1894 caps near-term rebounds, while the 100-period SMA at 1.1848 offers initial support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator slips modestly below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims marginally lower at 49, reflecting the ongoing consolidation while hinting at mounting selling pressure.

The daily chart shows fading upward strength, but with buyers still in control. EUR/USD keeps developing above all its moving averages, while the 20-day SMA keeps heading firmly north above the longer ones. The 20-day SMA offers dynamic support at 1.1823. Technical indicators hold within positive levels, but the Momentum turned lower while the RSI ticked higher and currently stands at 56, failing to provide clear directional clues.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)