Technical outlook on Gold, USD/CHF, EUR/USD [Video]

Trump's renewed threats – Gold

Gold stepped into the new week on the back foot, opening with a soft gap down at 4,648 after a long weekend that packed more punch than price action suggested. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside with the strongest triple-digit gain in a year, but markets barely blinked. Rate hike expectations didn’t meaningfully revive, and with rate-cut bets already fading, gold was left without a clear macro tailwind.

Then came geopolitics. Over the weekend, President Trump fired off another aggressive warning targeting Iran’s power infrastructure, as his ten-day deadline expires today. Gold, however, barely flinched. Perhaps headlines suggesting that the US, Iran and mediators are seeking a potential ceasefire kept investors on the sidelines. That said, the message from the market is becoming clearer: gold is trading less like a shield and more like a risk asset. With its correlation to US equities strengthening to +0.78 in Q1, its sensitivity to geopolitical shocks seems to be fading. Still, don’t hold your breath.

The technical picture tells a more cautious story. Momentum is starting to roll over, with the stochastic oscillator flirting with a bearish reversal and the RSI stuck below the 50 neutral mark after the price failed to cross above the 20-day SMA at 4,755. A break below the nearby support at 4,650 could open the door towards 4,375. If the latter proves fragile too, the next stop may well be the 4,200 psychological level and the 200-day SMA.

Besides geopolitics, US inflation prints could be another test for the precious metal in the second half of the week.

US inflation data – USD/CHF

The spotlight this week belongs squarely to US inflation. With core PCE on Thursday and CPI on Friday, markets are bracing for numbers that could reshape rate expectations yet again. CPI, in particular, may steal the show, offering a more up-to-date snapshot with March data.

Forecasts point to a notable rebound. Headline CPI is expected to jump to 3.3% y/y from 2.4%, while the monthly print is seen surging to 0.9%. Core inflation is also ticking higher, projected at 2.7% y/y. If these expectations materialize, the narrative could quickly shift back toward tighter policy - and that’s where USDCHF comes into play. A softer franc would likely be welcomed by the SNB ahead of next week’s policy meeting, which has already made it clear it is uncomfortable with excessive strength and stands ready to step in if needed. Traders will also be tuning in to the SNB governor’s remarks on Thursday for any fresh signals.

Technically, a stronger dollar on revived rate speculation could finally give the pair the push it needs to clear the 0.7990 barrier. The rebound from the 200-day SMA at 0.7940 kept the broader uptrend intact last week, and a potential bullish crossover between the 20- and 200-day SMAs is starting to build a constructive case. If momentum follows through, resistance at 0.8075 could come into play, followed by the 0.8100–0.8125 zone.

But the floor is just as important. A break below 0.7915 - and especially below the 50-day SMA at 0.7870 - would start to erode the bullish narrative and put the uptrend on shaky ground.

Before all that, Monday’s ISM services PMI could set the tone early, offering the week's first pulse check.

Risk-on sentiment – EUR/USD

Compared to the US, the eurozone calendar looks almost uneventful this week, with only second-tier data such as industrial production and retail sales on deck. But don’t mistake quiet data for quiet markets.

EURUSD is starting the week with a sense of quiet optimism. Risk appetite hasn’t disappeared, and the pair is attempting to reclaim ground above the 20-day SMA after successfully defending the 1.1500 level into last week’s close. There’s a feeling that buyers are testing the waters but not fully committing just yet.

The real battleground lies ahead. The 1.1630–1.1670 zone is shaping up as a key resistance area and whether the bulls can push through will likely depend less on data and more on fragile US-EU relations. Trump’s ongoing pressure on the EU, coupled with renewed NATO exit rhetoric and the announcement of 100% tariffs on certain patented pharmaceuticals and ingredients, continues to cast a long shadow over sentiment. A clean break above that zone, however, could open the path toward 1.1770.

Still, there’s a warning sign flashing in the background. The 50- and 200-day SMAs are on the verge of forming a death cross for the first time since November 2024—a signal that longer-term bearish forces may still be lurking. For now, though, sellers may remain patient unless the pair slips below the 1.1400 floor.