Technical analysis – Gold climbs back over 5,000, can it hold above it?

Gold is rising over 1% today, building on Friday's 4% gain, to trade back above the key 5,000 key threshold for the first time in almost a week, helped by bargain hunting, lingering concerns over US-Iran tensions and a softer dollar. Meanwhile, investors await key US economic data due this week to gauge the US interest rate trajectory.

A sustained close above 5,000 could open the way toward resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-February selloff from the record high near 5,141. A break higher, could lead to a gain toward the 5,342-5,430 range.

However, the technical indicators are not fully endorsing the bullish momentum. While still in positive territory, the RSI is hovering only slightly above neutral, and the MACD remains above zero but is easing below its red signal line.

This suggests the market could still face a pullback from current levels, which represent a strong technical barrier. Initial support lies at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,891, a break below which could expose 4,685, which capped losses last week, followed by the medium‑term ascending trendline near 4,590.

Overall, gold is attempting to break above a significant technical threshold, having retraced nearly half of the steep decline from its record high. Yet the rebound continues to lack strong momentum, and only a sustained move back toward 5,100 would set the stage for a potential retest of record territory in the near term.