This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed. Europe is trading mainly Lower with the exception of the Spanish Ibex exchange.

Possible challenges to traders

Final Wholesale Inventory m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
Lack of Major Economic News.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT slide Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with Non-Farm Payrolls pending. The Dow climbed Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Higher at 8:30 AM EST and the ZT slide Lower at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 30 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for ZT is now Sep '25 and the Dow is still Jun '25. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

ZT -Sep 25 - 6/06/25

Dow - Jun 2025- 6/06/25

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias as it was Jobs Friday and we always maintain a Neutral bias on that day as well as FOMC Day. The markets were surprised by an increase of 139,000 net new jobs created versus the expectation of 126,000. The markets reacted positively to this news as the Dow rose by 364 points and the other indices rose as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

We were pleasantly surprised on Friday with the Job numbers reported as we thought the ADP numbers posted on Wednesday would have a dire effect on the markets. Not so as the indices all gained on the positive news. Will this continue?

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

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Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds around 1.1750 after weak German and EU PMI data

EUR/USD maintains its range trade at around 1.1750 in European trading on Tuesday. Weaker-than-expected December PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone make it difficult for the Euro to find demand, while investors refrain from taking large USD positions ahead of key employment data.

GBP/USD climbs above 1.3400 after upbeat UK PMI data

GBP/USD gains traction and trades in positive territory above 1.3400 on Tuesday as the British Pound benefits from upbeat PMI data. Later in the day, crucial data releases from the US, including Nonfarm Payrolls, Retail Sales and PMI, could trigger the next big action in the pair.

Gold retreats from seven week highs on profit-taking; all eyes on US NFP release

Gold price loses momentum below $4,300 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by some profit-taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term futures traders. Furthermore, optimism around Ukraine peace talks could weigh on the safe-haven asset like Gold.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to point to cooling labor market in November

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October and November on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 40,000 in November. The Unemployment Rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.4% during the same period.

NFP preview: Complex data release will determine if Fed was right to cut rates

The long wait is over, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US will release nonfarm payrolls reports for both November and October at 1330 GMT on Tuesday. The overall NFP figure for October is expected to be -10k, however, it is expected to be influenced by a massive 130k drop in federal department workers.

BNB Price Forecast: BNB slips below $855 as bearish on-chain signals and momentum indicators turn negative

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, continues to trade down around $855 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight decline the previous day. Bearish sentiment further strengthens as BNB’s on-chain and derivatives data show rising retail activity.

Initial conclusion