Super Week Coming, Beware of Risks
The dollar index was up choppy in general last week as weak U.S. inflation data offset better-than-expected second-quarter economic growth and left markets betting on an imminent fed rate cut. Fed funds futures suggested traders put the odds of a quarter-point rate cut at the FED's July policy meeting at about 84.5 percent, higher than the odds shortly before the GDP data was released.
The dollar index challenges the 98 barrier, the current pressure above the previous high around 98.38, below the short-term support in 97.80, and then below the support in the vicinity of 97.50.
The euro fell to an eight-week low against the dollar at 1.1101 after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but hinted at further easing. It is now trading around 1.1130, with pressure in the 1.1180-1.1200 range above and support at the 1.1100 round mark below.
In his first speech to parliament since becoming prime minister, the new leader of Britain's conservative party, Boris Johnson, said he would negotiate a new Brexit deal with the European Union. His heated comments were immediately met with a counterattack from the European Union, as fears of a UK Brexit without a deal mounted again, with the pound breaking the 1.24 barrier and hitting a low of 1.2375, the lowest since March 2017. Markets will also be watching next week's European central bank interest rate decision. Lower support at 1.2350 and upper pressure at 1.2400.
XAU/USD
Spot gold fluctuates around 1420. As the FED's interest rate decision this week will directly affect the direction of gold, the market is cautious in trading, with short-term pressure at 1430 on the top, 1440 on the top, 1410 on the bottom and 1400 on the bottom.
USO/USD
Last week, New York crude oil generally fluctuated in a narrow range. API crude oil inventories and EIA crude oil inventories fell sharply, providing support for oil prices. The downward support was at the line of 55. Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates to stimulate economic development, the market demand outlook is still worried, above by the 200-day moving average of 57 near the suppression, the short and long sides temporarily wait and see sentiment is strong.
PS: Week Focus
In the following week, the market will have a super week. In terms of risk events, the FED, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will all announce their interest rate decisions, and the FED is highly likely to cut interest rates. Economic data, not just the Euro zone's second quarter GDP data, the U.S. consumer price index, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI data, U.S. factory orders month rate, but also the U.S. non-farm payrolls report in July, are higher attention and have a bigger impact on market, investors need to arrange for positioning and timing.
Author
Ray Shen
CPT Markets
Graduated from Canada TRU university of finance department, national golden trader; Engaged in financial industry for more than 10 years; Served as a staff writer of many networks, magazines and media; Invited as guest lecturer fo
