Straits talk opens markets, again

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 99.650.  

Energies: Sep '26 Crude is Up at 75.82.

Financials: The Sep '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 2 ticks and trading at 109.29.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 60 ticks Higher and trading at 7764.50.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Up at 4329.00

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Mixed.  All of Europe is trading Higher.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                                                          

• Challenger Job Cuts y/y is out at 5:30 AM EST. Major.
• Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Final Wholesale Inventories m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. Major.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 7:40 AM EST with no real news to speak of.   The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 9 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 12 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Sep 26 - 8/05/26

Dow - Sep 2026- 8/05/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow veered Higher by 263 points, but the other indices closed Lower.  Today our bias is Mixed or Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday the markets rode the news that the Straits of Hormuz would be open, but this has yet to be confirmed by Iran.  Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?