Stocks in rotation

Frank Walbaum FX Strategies.Asia

Important news this week

Mon, 06th 16:00 CET US ISM Services PMI.
Wed, 08th, 04:00 CET NZ RBNZ interest rate decision.
Wed, 08th, 20:00 CET US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Fri, 10th, 14:30 CET CA Unemployment Claims.

Markets pause as traders watch for an early-July reversal

Markets have started the week in a cautious mood. The US dollar opened little changed, while equities traded sideways after their recent rally and are beginning to look technically stretched. Early July has often seen markets extend gains before profit-taking emerges later in the month, making the coming sessions particularly important. Whether buyers can push indices to fresh highs or whether a broader retracement begins will likely depend on upcoming macro data and central bank expectations.

In FX markets, the Japanese Yen has resumed its weakness, while the New Zealand Dollar is trading cautiously ahead of this week's RBNZ rate decision. Gold and Silver are both testing important resistance levels. Should the US dollar regain strength, precious metals could struggle to break higher and may be vulnerable to a pullback. Oil has found support after recent declines, suggesting downside momentum is fading for now. Attention this week will also be on Canadian employment data and the FOMC meeting minutes, although no major policy surprises are currently expected.

Market talk

Markets remain in consolidation mode after a strong first half of the year. Investors are now asking whether the seasonal pattern will repeat, with another push higher during early July followed by a period of profit-taking. The US dollar remains the key driver across asset classes. A renewed dollar rally could pressure FX pairs, metals, and equities, while continued dollar weakness would likely support the current risk-on environment. For now, traders are watching technical resistance levels closely and waiting for fresh catalysts before committing to the next major move.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities mixed, USD stronger, BTC positive, oil near support, Silver weak, Gold weak.

Author

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

GBP/USD dips below 1.3350 with bullish momentum losing steam

The British Pound ticks lower against the US Dollar Monday, attempting to close a seven-day rally, as tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the critical points in the peace process between Washington and Tehran. The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.3340 at the time of writing, down from 1.3387 highs last week, although it maintains a near-term bullish trend intact.

EUR/USD drops toward 1.1400 as US Dollar rebounds

EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower, heading toward 1.1400 in the European session on Monday. The pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar gains ground after a negative weekly close. Middle East concerns and the USD/JPY rally support the Greenback.

Gold sticks to modest losses amid Hormuz risks; lacks bearish conviction

Gold shows some resilience below the $4,150 level, and for now seems to have stalled its intraday retracement slide from a two-week high, levels just above the $4,200 mark, touched earlier this Monday. The commodity, however, retains its negative bias heading into the European session, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak.

Dogecoin recovery stalls amid early signs of whale support

Dogecoin (DOGE) price nears $0.0770, maintaining a broadly consolidative tone for the last three days after Friday’s 4% rebound. The first-ever meme coin is losing retail interest as DOGE derivatives volume drops, while on-chain data shows early signs that large-wallet investors, commonly referred to as whales, are expanding their holdings.

Week ahead – ISM services PMI and Fed Minutes to shake Fed hike bets

The US dollar is finishing the week on the back foot against most of its major counterparts this week, losing the most ground against the kiwi, the franc and the pound. Despite the pullback, investors remained adamant in their view that the Fed may have to press the rate hike button before the turn of the year.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.