Stocks in rotation

Frank Walbaum

Important news this week

Mon, 06th 16:00 CET US ISM Services PMI.
Wed, 08th, 04:00 CET NZ RBNZ interest rate decision.
Wed, 08th, 20:00 CET US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Fri, 10th, 14:30 CET CA Unemployment Claims.

Markets pause as traders watch for an early-July reversal

Markets have started the week in a cautious mood. The US dollar opened little changed, while equities traded sideways after their recent rally and are beginning to look technically stretched. Early July has often seen markets extend gains before profit-taking emerges later in the month, making the coming sessions particularly important. Whether buyers can push indices to fresh highs or whether a broader retracement begins will likely depend on upcoming macro data and central bank expectations.

In FX markets, the Japanese Yen has resumed its weakness, while the New Zealand Dollar is trading cautiously ahead of this week's RBNZ rate decision. Gold and Silver are both testing important resistance levels. Should the US dollar regain strength, precious metals could struggle to break higher and may be vulnerable to a pullback. Oil has found support after recent declines, suggesting downside momentum is fading for now. Attention this week will also be on Canadian employment data and the FOMC meeting minutes, although no major policy surprises are currently expected.

Market talk

Markets remain in consolidation mode after a strong first half of the year. Investors are now asking whether the seasonal pattern will repeat, with another push higher during early July followed by a period of profit-taking. The US dollar remains the key driver across asset classes. A renewed dollar rally could pressure FX pairs, metals, and equities, while continued dollar weakness would likely support the current risk-on environment. For now, traders are watching technical resistance levels closely and waiting for fresh catalysts before committing to the next major move.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities mixed, USD stronger, BTC positive, oil near support, Silver weak, Gold weak.

Author

Frank Walbaum

AUD/USD sticks to positive bias above 0.7100; lacks bullish conviction

AUD/USD trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, holding above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Friday as softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot. Furthermore, hawkish RBA Governor Bullock's comments boost rate hike bets and support the Aussie. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with geopolitical uncertainties, limits USD losses and caps the pair.

USD/JPY approaches 158.00 as Japanese Yen resumes decline

USD/JPY is resuming its upside in the European session on Friday, refreshing two-week highs and nearing 158.00. The Japanese Yen extends losses, despite the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected rate hike to 1.25% and hawkish Governor Ueda's comments, as two surprise dissents against the rate hike weigh on it.

Gold keeps the bid tone in place; still below $4,400

Gold adds to the optimism seen in the second half of the week, trading with decent gains just below the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s advance finds traction in declining crude oil prices and fresh selling pressure on the US Dollar.

Why altcoin season isn't coming back — and what stole its capital

If, after two years of being frozen in ice, Katara and Sokka woke you up to the crypto market, it would seem like 100 years have passed. With Bitcoin soaring to record highs just over a year ago, everyone expected a routine altcoin season, where investors take profits from the top crypto to chase higher returns in altcoins.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The BoJ raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the policy phase had changed.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.