|

Sterling pressured after Article 50 date confirmed

Dollar weakness has encouraged bullish investors to elevate the Sterling/Dollar to a fresh threeweek high at 1.2436 during Monday's trading session. Although the emergence of a lone BoE hawk last week coupled with concerns about rising inflation has provided Sterling a boost, investors should be under no illusion that this has changed the bearish sentiment. With recent reports confirming that Theresa May will be triggering Article 50 on the 29th of March already sparking jitters, Sterling may be in-store for some serious punishment this week. It is becoming clear that the Brexit developments are likely to dictate where Sterling trades in the medium to longer term with uncertainty effectively limiting any extreme upside gains. From a technical standpoint, Sterling bears may re-enter the scene back below 1.2300.

Risk sentiment dented by protectionist fears

Stock markets were under noticeable pressure during Monday's trading session with risk appetite absent after the G20 decided to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism. Asian shares concluded mostly mixed amid the sluggish trading mood while risk aversion exposed European equities to downside losses. Although Wall Street limped into gains last week, further upside may be limited this evening as the renewed protectionism concerns keep investors on edge. With major finance leaders from the largest economies in the world failing to persuade the US to renew an anti-protectionism pledge, the growing threat of a potential global trade war may create serious headwinds for this phenomenal stock market rally.

Dollar Index levitates above 100.00

The lingering impacts of last week's "dovish hike" can still be seen on the Greenback which remains on the back foot as of writing. Although sellers have exploited the disappointment from the Fed's less than hawkish stance to attack the Dollar Index repeatedly, the downside may be limited as sentiment improves towards the U.S economy. Investors may pay extra attention to the string of speeches from Fed officials this week which could offer further clarity on interest rate hike timings this year. A hawkish surprise could install Dollar bullish investors with enough inspiration to send prices back towards 101.00.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index remains heavily pressured on the daily charts. The 100.00 psychological support remains a key level which could protect the bulls or assist the bears.

Commodity spotlight – WTI Oil

WTI Crude found itself vulnerable to heavy losses on Monday with prices sinking towards $48 as the rising drilling activity in the U.S reinforced the oversupply fears. Sentiment remains bearish towards oil and the fading optimism over the effectiveness of OPEC's supply cut deal could encourage sellers to attack prices further. Although OPEC's inability to balance the oil markets in the first half of 2017 has sparked speculations of the organization extending its six-month contract, the rise of U.S shale and lingering concerns of some members not fully following the compliance in cutting production could create headwinds.

From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude is heavily pressured on the daily charts and a break below $48 could open a path lower towards $47.

Author

Lukman Otunuga

Lukman Otunuga

ForexTime (FXTM)

Lukman Otunuga has been a Research Analyst at FXTM since 2015. A keen follower of macroeconomic events, with a strong professional and academic background in finance, Lukman is well versed in fundamental and technical analysis.

More from Lukman Otunuga
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans. 

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.