SP500 "Volatility Next Two Weeks"

Summary

SP500. It is possible the recent low was the 4 year low on December 24, 2018 or it is still forming. The 4 year may be in front of us, perhaps near year end.

This does look like the Primary cycle low (18 week) on Dec 24.

Volatility should continue and longer term I’m expecting bigger moves and changes from 2020 through 2023.

Watch for a cycle turn in the SP500 next week. That’s March 4, 2019.

Jupiter square Neptune which we have mentioned numerous times may be the real problem as these planets in aspect can be quite inflationary. There are also large debt problems in many countries, companies and individuals. One of the reasons I’m looking at Gold here is Inflation coupled with the above debt problems. This may be pointing to serious financial problems late 2019 or 2020.

Watch out for Feb 6 +- 3 tds (trading days).

Gold When the pullback is complete, I’m looking for Gold to move up into mid-March. We may see another pullback then a rise in Gold over the next few weeks. Gold should still be the trade of 2019.

Crude's  Crude started up on Dec 24. This should be the Primary cycle trough and we are entering the 9th week of the Primary cycle. I’m looking for a move down in Crude.

 

SP500

The Primary cycle trough was on Dec 24th. We are currently entering the 9th week of a new Primary cycle. The Primary cycle is approx.18 weeks and is typically composed of 3- 6 week sub-cycles or 2-9 week sub-cycles. This Primary cycle should see a turn down between now and March 8th, +- 2 weeks. This looks like a 9 week

The Price moving averages, the 15 day sma is just under price and above the 45 day sma which is turning up. Notice price hit resistance at the 200 day sma.

The 15 day sma is red, the 45 day sma is blue and the light blue is the 200 day sma. Also note price just touched the Fibonacci retracement at 75.6%. Note; the normal Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0 %, and 61.8%.

One can also use extended retracements which typically use the square roots of one of the above. So, I also use SqrRoot(61.8) = 78.6  and SqrRoot(78.6) = 88.6

Note the recent high on Feb 25, 2019 then Mar 1, 2019. The highs were stopped at the 78.6% retracement. Watch this early in the week. Remember we are near the end of the 9 week cycle.

The recent move down to the Primary low was timing the 18-week Primary cycle and a 2 year cycle. The longer term cycles (2 year) can distort the shorter term cycles (18 week). As noted above we may be seeing the 4 year cycle low later in the year although it could have been at the Dec 24 low.

September 21, 2018 seems to be the crest of the last Primary cycle and may be the cycle high for the 4 year cycle.

The following dates may have significant moves or start of a move. The following aspects are for a reverse in trend or large range day.

March 1          Venus square Uranus

                        Sudden financial moves / movement in currencies.

March 5          Mercury Retrograde

                        See below

March 6          Uranus enters Taurus

                        Taurus rules money / currencies. Uranus is sudden change. This period of time could affect the banking system and other financial institutions. As noted this could affect currencies as well. This would include the US buck.

                        Sun conjunct Neptune

                        This aspect should emphasize the Jupiter / Neptune square and would be good timing for a move in Gold and / or a turn down in the SP500.

March 9          Saturn parallel Pluto

                        I view the parallel aspect as a mild conjunction. Nevertheless, these are two  powerful aspects which could affects the market sharply. It could also be  signaling some other type of event.

The above aspects are for next week. A list of powerful outer planets aspects follows. They will be covered in detail as we approach them.

Mercury Retrograde

This week we have Mercury turning retrograde on March 5th. The inferior conjunction between Mercury and the Sun occurs on March 14th and Mercury turns direct again on March 28th. Since this is the inferior conjunction it is also the heliocentric conjunction between the Sun and Mercury. There can be a change in trend at any of those dates.

As a reminder the two planets inside the Earth's orbit are Mercury and Venus. Both can have inferior and superior conjunctions depending on whether they are on the Earths side of the Sun or the far side of the Sun.

Inferior conjunction

Superior conjunction

The following chart shows Mercury retrograde (red arrow pointing left), Mercury turning direct (blue arrow pointing right), the geocentric inferior conjunction (small red circle) and the heliocentric conjunction (small blue circle) on the same day. Note the swings in the SP500 on any of those dates in the past.

 

This Mercury retrograde period is occurring in late Pisces, a mutable water sign. Mercury also rules communication, commerce and trading, that is buying and selling. It has a reputation for problems, both communication, contracts and wrong decisions or choices.

The Mercury retrograde period is known to be volatile. There is potential for increased volatility and problems for both the Retrograde and Direct dates.

Any aspects, like those noted above are a minimum of 3 tds (trading days). Longer term aspects will be noted separately. The following list are planet aspects. There will also be Eclipses, Fixed stars, cycle charts and other Astrological items.

Longer Term Aspects

2019    Jupiter square Neptune

2020    Jupiter conjunct Saturn

            Jupiter conjunct Pluto

            Saturn conjunct Pluto

2021    Jupiter squared Uranus

            Saturn square Uranus

2022    Jupiter conjunct Neptune

Jupiter square Neptune will be with us for most of the year. Due to retrograde motion Jupiter will square Neptune 3 times. This combination can point to an increase in spending, inflation, currencies and potential debt problems and bankruptcies. This could be on and off all year. Neptune alone is about illusion and delusion. Jupiter can be very favorable but tends to overdoing things.

 

Feb 20 may still result in a turn. See the Bradley Indicator at the end of this section.

If the current volatility continues watch for a cycle turn during the next 2 weeks.

The following daily chart of the SP500 is what we have been showing under the 24 Harmonic chart. This is the basis of what we have been forecasting on.

Following is the 24 Harmonic chart we have shown for many months.

The Jan 2 date was a big range day. It is trying to move through the Jupiter Price line (blue)

 

The next hits are April 10, 2019 and May 24^th.

The 4 Year cycle

 

The above chart shows the 4 year (red). The last 4 year cycle trough was Feb 2016. The next 4 year cycle should be Dec 2019 +- 10 months or it was Dec 24, 2018. See the chart above.

 

From the last few posts:

“This coming year could see an increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”

See the link under “Earthquakes”. This is an application from the USGS. Geophysical activity has been picking up.

There has been a number of volcano’s erupting as well. Japan, Hawaii, Philippines, others.

On a longer term basis the following monthly chart of the DJIA  shows the 15 year cycle (red vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle (blue lines). The 15 year is due now or took place April – June 2018. The 45 year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer-term cycle possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.

 

Although we do not have enough data the 45 year cycle pointing to Sept 2022 this could also be the 90 year cycle. We do not have enough data to make the 90 year call. For a 90 year cycle I’m looking at 1842 – 1932 and then 2022.

The following daily chart of the SP500 shows 2 Envelope channels. Red is the centered 

20 week envelope channel. Blue is the centered 40 week envelope channel. The dark blue squares are the Sun / Neptune square which is often a short term change in trend.

We have had this noted it was due for a sell.  Also note the dark blue squares. They are the dates of the Mars square Uranus transit.

 

 

The red averages are based on the 20 week so they are shifted 10 weeks or a ½ cycle.

I brought up Iran on the last couple of posts. I’ll come back to those charts on any potential signs of conflict. It is getting close. Watch the news for problems with Iran.

Other

Other cycles and Astrological events are the 20 year cycle and heliocentric Jupiter in Sagittarius.

The vertical black lines are the 20 year cycle. Note the lows. It is due again near March 2022 but it needs a wide orb.

The blue x’s show when heliocentric Jupiter is in Sagittarius. This, most often, has the market moving up. The next chart shows both these items. The aspect Heliocentric Jupiter in Sagittarius came from MMA. And timing solutions.

 

Another cycle which will be coming up is the 65 week in the DJIA.

 

2019 Eclipses

See the previous blog post for more details on the eclipses. More on the July eclipse in a couple of weeks.

Date                Eclipse                                   Saros Cycle               Sign

Jan 6, 2019     Solar Partial                            122                              15Cp25

Jan 21, 2019   Total Lunar                              134                              00Le51

July 2, 2019     Solar Total                               127                              10Cn37

July 16, 2019  Partial Lunar                           139                              24Cp4

Dec 26, 2019  Solar Annular                          132                              4Cp6

The Bradley Indicator

This stock index forecasting tool was designed by astrologer Donald Bradley and published in 1947 in a booklet titled "Stock Market Prediction".

On the cover this tool is called the Planetary Barometer and inside the booklet it is called a Siderograph. Now it is simply called "the Bradley". The

Bradley is meant to forecast major and minor turning-points (where a trend will reverse) in either the Dow Jones Industrial Average or SP500 indexes. Bradley's work was obviously on the DJIA.

It does not forecast or anticipate whether that turning-point will be a high or a low. It has no polarity. The Bradley may turn up while the DJIA turns down. The amplitude of the Bradley swing is also not important. It only finds periods where trend changes occur.

It should be understood Astrologers in decades gone by who had no computers, spreadsheets, or databases to analyze data typically worked with much smaller data sets than we do today. This maybe why the Bradley worked so well when it first came out in 1947 but now is somewhat unreliable. Now, it goes through periods where it works fairly well but then can stop operating for months at a time. Originally it was for geocentric astrology (Earth centered) but there are now heliocentric models (Sun centered) and others.

In Bradley's own words:

"At no time must the reader gain the impression that a siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages"

So if the Bradley only identifies trend changes, what are trend changes?

- a rising market changes to a falling market

- a rising market changes to sideways

- a sideways market starts going up

- a sideways market starts going down

- a market going down changes to a rising market

- a falling market starts going sideways

The red line is the Bradley Indicator.