Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Very strong US jobs data released last Friday hit the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves, sent equities lower, the US yields and the US dollar higher.
And the latest US jobs data will likely support the US dollar bulls this week, as we don’t have much on the economic calendar that could temper Friday’s monstrously strong NFP read, and remind us that the US economy is still slowing.
Plus, the fresh selling pressure on the Japanese yen will likely give an extra hand to the Fed hawks, on weekend news that the potential new Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Masayoshi Amamiya will be dovish.
In the light of the latest macroeconomic developments, a revision to medium term outlook is necessary.
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The dollar-yen’s latest jump above the 130 mark could be sustainable in the short to medium run.
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The EURUSD traders may be happy to call it a good trade and retreat to the sidelines.
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Cable could sink into bearish consolidation zone.
Elsewhere, the Adani selloff enters the third week, and things go from bad to worse as in increasing number of banks don’t accept Adani holdings as collateral anymore.
The Chinese spy balloon that was flying over some strategic points in the US renewed tensions between US and China, and that could throw a floor under the gold’s selloff.
And US crude is back into last year’s bearish trend, with however risks of tight supply, and Chinese reopening hanging in the air.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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