Soft day for Asian equities in light markets ex-US holiday

Asia market update: Soft day for Asian equities in light markets ex-US holiday; KR inflation back to target; NZ turns the corner?; CN trade wars continue to expand; Focus on US Aug ISM Mnfg PMI tonight.

General trend

- Currencies were quiet over the US Labor day holiday Monday night Asia time, although commodity currencies Aussie and Kiwi halted their recent run-up today; down -0.8% and -0.7% respectively v USD as commodities and resources struggled.

- JPY/USD gained +0.4% in the afternoon amid reports that BOJ Gov Ueda submitted a document to the govt suggesting further rate rises likely if economy and prices perform as expected.

- South Korea’s inflation levels are back at the Central Bank’s (BOK) target level of ~2%, after August CPI saw both headline and Core CPI rise at their slowest pace in three years.

- Recent better economic data out of New Zealand was backed up by NZ Treasury saying that recent increases in consumer and business confidence suggest “an economic turning point” (Aug ANZ Business Confidence was highest level in a decade).

- China’s global trade wars continued to heat up as China’s MOFCOM threatened to respond in-kind to Canada’s recent 100% tariffs on China EVs by initiating an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian Canola and Rape seed imports as well as some chemical products. China Rapeseed meal futures +4% on the news.

- Australia’s Q2 Current Account deficit worsened further, in fact was the largest since June quarter of 2018. Officials noted continued falls in bulk commodity prices and higher income paid to non-residents, as well as exports of goods falling -4.4%, with lower prices for iron ore and coal.

- Australian equities hit by ex-dividend day for retailers such as Woolworths (-2.3%), Coles and Wesfarmers (-0.7%); (AU Consumer Discretionary index -1.5% in early trading).

- Hong Kong Mainland Banking index dropped >3% in early trading, amid recent earning. (ICBC -2.5%, was also down on Monday).

- Japan Bank Index gained +1.6% in early trading as 10-Year JGB Yields rose 2bps in the day ahead of today’s auction. However, no further moves post-auction, which was largely inline with the prior month. Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui led gains.

- Japanese firms continue to either delay or cancel planned corporate bond issuance ahead of September’s BOJ decision (This week to date Toho Gas and Infroneer).

- Likely some disgruntled faces at Japanese retailer Seven & I (and Japan in general), as a Japanese MOF Official said that Japanese companies cannot use National Security designation to defend against corporate takeovers (in this case against Canadian retail giant Couche-Tard’s takeover offer).

- US equity FUTs -0.2% to -0.3% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Tuesday Sept 3rd (Tue night US Aug ISM Mnfg PMI).

- Wednesday Sept 4th AU + JP final Aug Services PMI, AU Q2 GDP, CN Caixin Aug Services PMI, (Wed night US July JOLTS).

- Thursday Sept 5th KR 2nd prelim Q2 GDP, JP July Labor cash earnings, AU July Balance of Trade, (Thu night US initial weekly Jobless Claims, US Aug ISM Services PMI, US Fed Beige Book).

- Friday Sept 6th AU July Home Loans (Fri night US Aug NFP).

- Saturday Sept 7th CN Aug Trade Balance.

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Sept 2nd Vietnam, (Mon night US and Canada).

- Tue Sept 3rd Vietnam.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens flat at 8,109.

- Australia Q2 Current Account (A$): -10.7B v -5.0Be.

- Japan Aug Monetary Base Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.0% prior.

- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 83.1 v 82.6 prior.

- New Zealand Q2 Terms of Trade Q/Q: 2.0% v 2.7%e.

- New Zealand Treasury: Recent confidence gauges suggest an economic turning point - financial press.

- Macquarie Group (MQG.AU) Blackstone said to be near A$20B deal to acquire AirTrunk - press.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens -0.1% at 17,665; Shanghai Composite opens -0.1% at 2,809.

- China Press sees ‘limited’ liquidity gap during Sept – update.

- China reportedly to promote safe and efficient cross-border data flow - financial press [overnight update].

- Tesla Reports prelim Aug China Vehicle Deliveries 86.7K v 74.2K m/m – PCA.

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1112 v 7.1027 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY1.2B in 7-day reverse repos; Net drains CNY471B v net drains CNY468B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.1% at 38,745.

- Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Ueda said to submit document to a govt panel suggesting that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and prices perform as expected - financial press.

- BOJ Aug 2024 Bond Market Survey: Diffusion Index: -23 v -24 prior (May 2024).

- Intel to partner with Japan's AIST to establish chip R&D base in Japan for advanced chip-making - Japanese press.

- Seven & i (3382.jp); (JP) Japan MOF Official: Japanese companies cannot use National Security designation to defend against corporate takeovers - financial press.

- Japan sells ¥2.6T VS. ¥2.6T indicated in 10-year JGB bonds; AVG yield: 0.9150% V 0.9260% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.17X V 2.98X prior.

South Korea

- Kospi opens flat at 2,683.

- South Korea Aug CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.1%E (Slowest y/y rise since Mar 2021); CPI Core Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e (slowest rise since Nov 2021).

- South Korea Central Bank (BOK): Sees inflation maintain current stable trend for time being - press.

- South Korea reportedly to buy hundreds of suicide drones from Poland - South Korea press.

Other Asia

- Thailand PM Shinawatra says Thai Digital Wallet Scheme WILL continue to be implemented - press.

- Singapore Aug Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): 50.9 v 50.7 prior (overnight update).

North America

- (CN) China MOFCOM (responding to Canada EV tariffs); China to initiate anti-dumping investigation into Canola and Rape seed imports from Canada as well as some chemical products - Chinese press.

- X (US) VP Kamala Harris says she is opposed to Japan's Nippon Steel buying US Steel - comments at campaign rally (update).

- (IL) US President Biden says he plans to speak to Israeli PM Netanyahu "eventually" - US press, as Biden speaks to reporters.

Europe

- (UK) Aug British Retail Consortium (BRC) LFL Sales Y/Y: 0.8% v +0.3% prior.

- (EU) ECB reportedly at 'odds' over impact of economic downturn; Rift unlikely to impact Sept decision due to widespread consensus to cut rates - ECB sources.

- (EU) Eurozone Aug final Manufacturing PMI: 45.8 V 45.6E (confirms 26th month of contraction).

- (DE) Germany Aug final Manufacturing PMI 42.4 V 42.1E (confirms 26th month of contraction, lowest since Mar).

- (FR) France Aug final Manufacturing PMI: 43.9 V 42.1E (confirms 19th month of contraction, lowest since Jan).

- (IT) Italy Aug Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 V 48.5E (5th month of contraction, highest since Mar).

- (ES) Spain Aug Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 V 51.6E (7th month of expansion and lowest since Jan).

- (UK) Aug final Manufacturing PMI: 52.5 V 52.5E (confirms 4th month of expansion, highest since Jun 2022).

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 -0.2%; ASX 200 -0.1%; Hang Seng -0.5%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi +0.8%.

- Equity S&P500 FUTs -0.1%; Nasdaq100 FUTs -0.3%, Dax flat; FTSE100 flat.

- EUR 1.1054-1.1073: JPY 146.14-147.21; AUD 0.6733-0.6793; NZD 0.6185-0.6236.

- Gold -0.2% at $2,526/oz; Crude Oil -0.2% at $73.88/brl; Copper -0.9% at $4.1602/lb.