SNB Happy on the sidelines

Peter A Rosenstreich Swissquote Bank Ltd

The SNB is not moving, unwilling to disrupt the markets current narrative. From the SNB vantage point macro and domestic conditions are in a sweet spot for current policy. Inflation rates have improved but are nowhere near the SNB target rate while the short CHF is on most analyst top calls for 2018. All the while growth outlook has improved, led by export and manufacturing, supported by the weak CHF. The SNB will remain on the sideline, keeping rate unchanged and reiterating its pledge to intervene in the FX markets is needed.

SNB members will continue to sound cautions on exchange rate believe the CHF remain overvalued. Despite the improving backdrop its unlikely the SNB will get ahead of the ECB in tighten. This would put the first hike well into 2019 indicating that current pricing it too optimistic. We remain long on EURCHF.

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Author

Peter A Rosenstreich

Swissquote Bank Ltd

Peter Rosenstreich is Swissquote Bank’s Head of Market Strategy and manages the global strategy desk; he has held various positions in several banking institutions in the United States, Europe & Asia.

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