Russian ruble currency back at pre-Ukraine invasion level

- EU still trying to hammer out details of additional Russian sanctions.

Asia

- Australia Feb Trade Balance: A$7.5B v A$11.7B; Exports M/M: 0% v 0%e; Imports M/M: 12% v 2%e.

- China govt vowed use of monetary policy tools to aid economy at the proper time and in flexible way.

- BOJ Noguchi stated that was vital to continue with monetary easing as still would take time to hit CPI target.

- IMF cut Japan 2022 GDP growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.4%.

- China Global Times Editor in Chief Hu Xijin stated that US House Speaker Pelosi [travelling to Taiwan] was playing with fire, so was the US. There must be serious consequences for her visit.

Europe

- ECB's Nagel (Germany, hawk) stated that ECB might soon need to raise rates with inflation being high.

Americas

- FOMC Mar Minutes: Mmbers broadly agreed that monthly caps about $60B for Treasury securities and about $35B for agency MBS would likely be appropriate. Many participants said that one or more 50 bps increases in the target range could be appropriate at forthcoming meetings if inflation pressures remained elevated or intensified.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.62% at 458.80, FTSE -0.16% at 7,575.55, DAX +0.40% at 14,209.27, CAC-40 +0.56% at 6,535.14, IBEX-35 +1.18% at 8,582.50, FTSE MIB +0.65% at 24,607.00, SMI +1.17% at 12,463.79, S&P 500 Futures +0.14%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally higher and consolidated gains as the session progressed; sectors among those leading to the upside are consumer discretionary and health care; laggard sectors include energy materials; oil and gas subsector under pressure after WTI drops below $100/bbl; FTSE 100 dragged after Shell discloses Russia impairment; Frontline to Merge with Europnav; 888 updates on William Hill deal; focus on release of ECB minutes later in the day; earnings expected during the upcoming US session include Conagra, Telecom Italia and Constellation Brands.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: 888 Holdings [888.UK] +25% (acquisition update; trading update and placement), Robert Walters [RWA.UK] +5% (trading update), Electrolux [ELUXB.SE] +5% (settlement).

- Energy: Royal Dutch Shell [SHEL.UK] -1.5% (updates on impairments).

Speakers

- France Finance Min Le Maire stated that EU must coordinate before any Russian oil embargo.

- EU envoys said to be poised to approve a ban on Russian coal that would become fully effective from mid-August (a month later than initially proposed).

- China Defense Ministry reiterated stance to urge US to withdraw Taiwan arms sale plan immediately.

- Japan to release 15Mbls of oil as part of 2nd round of IEA SPR oil release.

- Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI): Weak JPY currency (Yen) was more negative for the domestic economy.

- Indonesia Central Bank Dep Gov Waluyo stated that expected 2022 CPI to accelerate closer to the upper-end of the 2%-4% target but not in any rush with policy rate hike to tackle inflation.

Currencies/Fixed income

- USD remained near a two-year high against a basket of currencies as the most recent Fed Minutes showed the FOMC was preparing to move aggressively to head off inflation. Many of the FOMC participants were prepared to raise interest rates in 50-basis-point increments at upcoming meetings.

- EUR/USD moved back below the 1.09 area as EU officials continued to hammer out the next round of Russian sanctions. Dealers noted that price action was focused more on political risks rather than just monetary policy developments.

- USD/JPY staying below the 124 level with the recent cycle high of 125 area remaining key resistance.

- USD/RUB was back at pre-invasion levels with the pair testing 79 area. The pair was at 121.5 when the Ukraine conflict began and sanctions were being implemented.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Mar CPI M/M: 3.6% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 9.7% v 6.2% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 4.4% v 3.0%e; Y/Y: 11.7% v 8.9%e.

- (CH) Swiss Mar Unemployment Rate: 2.4% v 2.3%e; Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 2.2% v 2.2%e.

- (DE) Germany Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.7%e.

- (NO) Norway Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v +3.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v -0.2% prior.

- (NO) Norway Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.9% v +3.3% prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Mar Gross Reserves: $58.2B v $57.7B prior; Net Reserves: $55.4B v $55.9Be.

- (SE) Sweden Mar Budget Balance (SEK): 23.4B v 85.6B prior.

- (AT) Austria Mar Wholesale Price Index M/M: 9.7% v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: 25.6% v 16.3% prior.

- (HU) Hungary Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.1B v -€0.2B prior.

- (CH) Swiss Mar Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 910.5B v 938.0B prior.

- (HU) Hungary Central Bank left the One Week Deposit Rate unchanged at 6.15%; as expected.

- (MY) Malaysia end-Mar Foreign Reserves: $115.6B v $115.2B prior.

- (CZ) Czech Mar International Reserves: $175.0B v $175.4B prior.

- (CN) China Mar Foreign Reserves: $3.188T v $3.199Te.

- (TW) Taiwan Mar Foreign Reserves: $548.8B v $550.0B prior.

- (UK) Q4 Final Output Per Hour Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.5% prelim.

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9%e.

- (SG) Singapore Mar Foreign Reserves: $381.0B v $426.6B prior.

- (CY) Cyprus Mar CPI M/M: 1.8% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.1% v 6.6% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €B vs. €4.5-5.5B indicated range in 2027, 2029 and 2032 bonds.

- Sold €1.507B in 1.50% Apr SPGB bonds; Avg Yield: 0.965% v 0.581% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.70x v 1.51x prior.

- Sold €1.205B in new 0.80% July 2029 SPGB bond; Avg Yield: 1.227% v 0.664% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.83x v 1.34x prior.

- Sold €2.326B in 0.70% Apr 2032 SPGB bond; Avg Yield: 1.601% v 1.307% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.29x v 1.51x prior.

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €530M vs. €250-750M indicated range in 0.70% Nov 2033 inflation-linked bonds (SPGBei); Real Yield: -0.852% v -1.036% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.78x v 1.75x prior (Mar 3rd 2022).

- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €B vs. €10.0-11.5B indicated range in 2032, 2038 and 2072 bonds.

- Sold €6.433B in 0.00% May 2032 Oat; Avg Yield: 1.17% v 0.52% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.82x v 1.75x prior (Mar 3rd 2022).

- Sold €3.466B 1.25% May 2038 Oat; Avg Yield: 1.42%; bid-to-cover: 1.75x (no history).

- Sold €1.600B in 0.50% May 2072 Oat; Avg Yield: 1.77% v 1.11% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.84x v 1.88x prior.

Looking ahead

- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Mar Balance-Sheet Aggregates: Target2 Liabilities: No est v €568.1B prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar CPI M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.6% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.7% prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -19.6% prior.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Mar CPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 7.4%e v 7.3% prior.

- 07:00 (MX) Mexico Mar CPI Core M/M: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.7%e v 6.6% prior.

- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -0.2% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Official Reserves: No est v $160.7B prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil CONAB Corp Report.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:15 (UK) BOE’s Pill (chief economist).

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 200Ke v 202K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.302Me v 1.307M prior.

- 08:30 (CL) Chile Mar Trade Balance: No est v $0.1B prior; Total Exports: No est v $7.6B prior; Total Imports: No est v $7.5B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.8B prior.

- 08:30 (CL) Chile Mar International Reserves: No est v $50.2B prior.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Mar Official Reserve Assets: No est v $643.2B prior.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Apr 1st: No est v $B prior.

- 09:00 (CL) Chile Nominal Wage Y/Y: No est v 7.5% prior.

- 09:00 (US) Fed’s Bullard.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Mar Minutes.

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- 10:30 (TR) Turkey Mar Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v 55.5B prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.

- 14:00 (US) Fed’s Bostic.

- 15:00 (US) Feb Consumer Credit: $18.1Be v $6.8B prior.

- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior; Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v -5.0% prior.

- 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand Mar Heavy Truckometer M/M: No est v 1.4% prior.

- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Current Account Balance: No est v $1.8B prior; Balance of Goods (BOP): No est v $0.7B prior.

- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank (BCRP) Interest Rate Decision: expected to raise Reference Rate by 50bps to 4.50%.

- 19:50 (JP) Japan Feb Current Account Balance: +¥1.450Te v -¥370.8B prior; Adjusted Current Account: ¥274.8Be v ¥787.5B prior; Trade Balance (BoP Basis): -¥205.0Be v ¥318.7B prior.

- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Feb Trade Balance: -$4.7Be v -$5.7B prior; Exports Y/Y: 10.0%e v 8.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 28.2%e v 25.7% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) RBA-Financial Stability Review.

- 23:00 (TH) Thailand Mar Consumer Confidence: No est v 44.3 prior; Economic Confidence: No est v 37.2 prior.