Risk appetite aids equities to record heights

Notes/Observations

- EU car sales surge in Mar.

- China's Q1 GDP grew at a record pace.

Asia:

- China Q1 GDP data registers record annualized growth (Q/Q: 0.6% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 18.3% v 18.5%e.

- China Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 14.1% v 18.0%e.

-China Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 34.2% v 28.0%e.

-China Mar Surveyed Jobless Rate: 5.3% v 5.4%e.

- South Korea President Moon appoints Kim Boo-kyum as Prime Minister.

Coronavirus:

- Total global cases 138.1M (+0.6% d/d); total deaths: 2.97M (+0.5% d/d).

Europe:

- New Financial think tank Survey: City of London Brexit hit worse than expected. Over 400 financial firms in Britain have shifted activities, staff, and a combined trillion pounds in assets to hubs in the European Union due to Brexit.

Americas:

- Feb Total Net TIC Flows: $72.6B v $105.8B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: $4.2B v $90.8B prior. China Total holding of US Treasuries rose for the 4th straight month to its highest level since July 2019 ($1.104T v $1.0952B prior).

- President Biden stated that could not allow a foreign power like Russia to interfere in US elections with impunity. If Russia made a further interference in US democracy, the US was prepared to respond. Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline was still an issue that is in play. Told Putin that communication between the two of them was essential.

- White House official: Nord Stream 2 sanctions not being included says they preserve the option to take additional actions beyond the Russian sanctions.

- Fed's Mester (FOMC voter) stated that the economic outlook was brightening but still far away from Fed goals.

- NY Fed Markets Chief Logan: Fed would continue to monitor money markets closely and adjust the overnight RRP operations as needed. Recent activity with rates below zero in the interdealer markets appeared to be technical in nature.

- Fed's Daly (non-voter, dove) stated that remained far away from both the inflation and employment targets. Going to see a big rebound in the economy in H2 but moderate afterward.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.36% at 440.14, FTSE +0.45% at 7,012.43, DAX +0.75% at 15,369.00, CAC-40 +0.34% at 6,255.15, IBEX-35 +0.51% at 8,615.00, FTSE MIB +0.19% at 24,574.50, SMI -0.07% at 11,191.42, S&P 500 Futures -0.06%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open mixed but later moved to trade higher; sectors among the better performers are industrials and financials; while underperforming sectors include consumer discretionary and technology; Bank of Ireland looking to acquire KBC’s Irish operations; focus on Eurogroup meeting and covid legislation in Germany occuring later in the day; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include Bank of New York, PNC, Morgan Stanley and State Street.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: HelloFresh [HFG.DE] +5% (earnings), L'Oreal [OR.FR] -2% (Q1 sales).

- Industrials: Daimler [DAI.DE] +3% (prelim Q1).

- Technology: Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology [PFV.DE] +11% (earnings).

- Materials: Severstal [CHMF.RU] +3% (earnings).

Speakers

- ECB's Villeroy (France) called for revised, simplified fiscal rules. Needed a common EU fiscal capacity. Stressed that should not abandon the Maastricht numerical targets (**Note: refers to 3% budget deficit and 60% debt to GDP ratios).

- EU's Sefcovic stated that need mutually agreed upon paths towards full compliance with Northern Ireland protocol. Ongoing legal actions against the UK would be continued as long as necessary.

- UK govt official stated that it had positive momentum on Northern Ireland protocol talks but difficult issues remain. UK's Frost and EU Sefcovic agreed to intensify contact.

- Romania Central Bank Gov Isarescu stated that saw no reason to further cut interest rates. Ready to ensure the flexibility of its inflation target.

- China State Asset Regulator SASAC spokesperson Peng: State-owned enterprises (SOE) had set challenging operational targets for 2021 but confident they would be achieved.

- Iran said to have obtained its 1st batch of 60% enriched uranium.

Currencies/Fixed Income

- Recent better US economic data did little to help the greenback (CPI earlier in the week and Retail Sales on Thurs). Dealers noting that positive effects of the Biden administration's stimulus package and the rapid US vaccination progress appeared to be baked in. Dealers noting that the Fed's lower-for-longer stance keeping USD gains limited.

- EUR/USD remained below the 1.20 level with focus turning to next week's ECB meeting with the General Council likely to maintain its determination of keeping favorable financing conditions.

- Most other regional currencies were also firmer against the USD as US bond yields continued to retrace from recent cycle highs.

Economic data

- (EU) EU27 Mar Car Registrations: +87.3% v -19.3% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Mar Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v -1.1% prior.

- (AT) Austria Mar Final CPI M/M: 1.1% v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0% prelim.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 202.5K v 193.6K tons prior.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 9th (RUB): 13.90T v 13.79T prior.

- (IT) Italy Feb Total Trade Balance: €4.8B v €1.6B prior; Trade Balance EU: +€0.6B v -€0.2B prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Trade Balance (seasonally adj): €18.4B v €22.0Be; Trade Balance NSA (unadj): €17.7B v €6.3B prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final CPI Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; CPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e.

Fixed income Issuance

- None seen.

Looking Ahead

- (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- President Biden meets PM Suga in Washington.

- 05:30 (IN) India to sell combined INR260B in 2022, 2030 and 2061 bonds.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR1.2B in I/L 2029, 2038 and 2050 Bonds.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £1.0B and £2.0B respectively).

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Apr 9th: No est v $576.9B prior.

- 07:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 2023, 2028 and 2033 RIKB bonds.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar CPI Core M/M: 0.7%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.7% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

-08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming bond issuance.

- 08:15 (CA) Canada Mar Annualized Housing Starts: 255.0Ke v 245.9k prior.

- 08:30 (US) Mar Housing Starts: 1.611Me v 1.421M prior; Building Permits: 1.750Me v 1.720M prior (revised from 1.682M.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Int'l Securities Transactions (CAD): No est v 1.3B prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: -0.4%e v +4.0% prior.

- 09:00 (EU) European Finance Ministers (EcoFin) hold informal meetings.

- 09:00 (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Quarterly Economic Bulletin.

- 10:00 (US) Apr Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 89.0e v 84.9 prior.

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after the European close.

- 12:00 (RU) Russia Mar PPI M/M: 2.0%e v 3.5% prior; Y/Y: 14.8%e v 10.7% prior.

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.