Retail Sales Data Rose by The Largest Amount

Ray Shen CPT Markets

Retail sales rose by the largest amount in four months in July, a sign that consumer spending remained firm ahead of the recent escalation in international trade. In spite of the fall in manufacturing output, two regional Fed indices were higher than expected in August.

Dollar index continued to shock upward, and stand above the 98 level. The below support is in the vicinity of 97.90 today, and the above pressure is in 98.60 line.

EUR/USD

The rebound in the dollar index weighed on the euro and market expectations for the ECB's September rate cut remained 100 per cent, with a 10 basis point cut of 16.7 per cent and a 20 basis point cut of 83.3 per cent, compared with less than 50 per cent in the previous session.

The euro came under pressure against the dollar at the 1.1100 level, with upward pressure around 1.1140 today and downward support around 1.1050.

GBP/USD

British retail sales data lifted the market, with sterling up more than 0.5 per cent. But a second referendum is unlikely, as Mr Corbyn, Mr Johnson's strongest rival, will struggle to win support from the Brexit opposition. There has been no further news on the outlook for Brexit this week, so the pound has been short of further downward momentum for the time being.

Sterling against the dollar yesterday high back, rebound to 1.2150 intraday, but then fell back to 1.2100 below. Today below support is still at 1.2000 level, above the pressure around 1.2200.

XAU/USD

Treasuries continued to rise across the board, with 10-year yields briefly falling below 1.5 per cent, led by shorter-dated debt. Fed chairman Colin Powell is expected to be ready to cut interest rates again in September as a precaution against a global slowdown. Gold is still seen as the natural haven from which to hedge against bond problems.

The gold price continues to shock upward, constantly challenging the previous high. And the current gold price trading around 1520, put pressure is still at 1535 line, If the breakthrough is expected to see high near 1550, below the short-term support at 1515, then below the support at 1500 level.

USO/USD

The trade situation is clearly adding to recession fears, The U.S. oil and gas continued to fall, breaking the 54 barrier at one point and closing at 54.70 at a low of 53.77. It is now trading around the 55 barrier, with the upper pressure around the 200-day moving average of 56.30 and the lower support at the 54 barrier.

PS: Today Focus

17:00 euro zone quarterly adjusted trade account for June (eur100 million)

20:30 us housing starts in July (%)

20:30 monthly construction permit rate in July (%)

22:00 the preliminary consumer confidence index of the university of Michigan for August

Author

Ray Shen

CPT Markets

Graduated from Canada TRU university of finance department, national golden trader; Engaged in financial industry for more than 10 years; Served as a staff writer of many networks, magazines and media; Invited as guest lecturer fo

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.