The week ahead features one key interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and plenty of important macro data to look forward to for currency traders, which should provide pockets of elevated volatility – see the calendar highlights, below.

In addition to next week’s key data releases, we will be watching the equity markets closely. With the third quarter reporting season dying down, and the US markets hitting repeated new all-time highs in the face of declining earnings growth, the risks of a correction have been rising by each passing day. Admittedly, optimism over a US-China trade deal has been on the rise and this is what has helped to boost sentiment. But we think that investors will soon run out of reasons to justify buying stocks at these extremely elevated and overbought levels, without a decent pullback. Whether it is Trump, the Fed or trade representatives negotiating a deal, these headline-driven markets are almost entirely dependent on who says what at any given time, as we have witnessed this week. With positive headlines driving the markets upwards, a few negative headlines could undo the rally. So, a correction in the stock markets is a possibility, which means investors should, as always, take care of risk extremely carefully. A sharp retreat in equities, if seen, should help to boost the appeal of safe-haven gold and Japanese yen, among other things.

What’s more, crude oil has risen to a potential turning point in the face of rising US crude stockpiles and weakening demand outlook. The price of crude could retreat after the WTI contract reached the pivotal level of $57.50 this week. If oil turns lower, this could negatively impact oil-linked Canadian dollar and Norwegian Krona.

Here is what’s on the agenda next week:

 

Monday

  • Japan Core Machinery Orders m/m.
  • UK GDP, manufacturing production and construction output.
  • US and Canadian banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day/Remembrance Day.

 

Tuesday

  • UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment.

 

Wednesday

  • RBNZ a 25-basis point cut to 0.75% expected, especially after this week’s weaker wages data.
  • UK CPI.
  • Eurozone industrial production.
  • US CPI and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony.

 

Thursday

  • Japan Prelim GDP, Australian employment report, and Chinese industrial production and retail sales.
  • German Prelim GDP, Eurozone GDP later.
  • UK Retail Sales m/m.
  • US PPI.

 

Friday

  • Eurozone trade figures.
  • US data dump includes retail sales, Industrial Production and Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Risk Warning Notice Foreign Exchange and CFD trading are high risk and not suitable for everyone. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite before making a decision to trade with us. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any off-exchange transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of the markets that you are trading. Margin and leverage To open a leveraged CFD or forex trade you will need to deposit money with us as margin. Margin is typically a relatively small proportion of the overall contract value. For example a contract trading on leverage of 100:1 will require margin of just 1% of the contract value. This means that a small price movement in the underlying will result in large movement in the value of your trade – this can work in your favour, or result in substantial losses. Your may lose your initial deposit and be required to deposit additional margin in order to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin requirement your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD soars past 1.2900 as Farage gives additional boost to Conservatives

GBP/USD has leaped above 1.29, the highest since early November, as the Brexit Party has failed to field candidates in 43 additional seats, facilitating a victory for PM Boris Johnson.

GBP/USD News

EUR/USD advances 1.10 amid upbeat trade headlines, after mixed US retail sales

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.1050, up on the day. US Commerce Secretary Ross has expressed optimism about reaching a deal with China. The Retail Sales Control Group met expectations with 0.3%.

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY clings to gains near session tops, around 108.70 post-US data

The USD/JPY pair maintained its strong bid tone near session tops and had a rather muted reaction to the mixed US economic data.

USD/JPY News

US Dollar Index challenges weekly lows near 98.00

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a bundle of its main rivals, is now accelerating the downside and threatens to test the key support at 98.00 the figure.

US Dollar Index News

Trump Impeachment: Markets will not like any replacement

The public phase of the impeachment hearings against President Donald Trump has kicked off, with the US public and parties divided more than ever. How does it affect markets?

Read more

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures