Quiet session with US out on holiday

Notes/Observations

- Unexpected cut to key lending rates in China; Move seen as opening the door to more monetary easing actions ahead.

- US markets closed for holiday.

Asia

- China Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.6% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.6%e; GDP YTD Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.0%e.

- China Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.7% v 3.8%e.

- China Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.8%e.

- PBOC cut the rate on it policy loans by 10 bps for its 1st such cut since Mar 2020. PBoC cut its 1-Year Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate (MLF) by 10bps to 2.85% and also cut the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate by 10bps to 2.10% (Move seen as opening the door to more monetary easing actions ahead).

- North Korea launched 2 unidentified projectile towards Sea of Japan, Japan coast guard say they could be a ballistic missiles (Note: 5th such launch from NK this month).

Coronavirus

- Japan govt said to seek stricter coronavirus measures in Tokyo and surrounding areas within the week, after Tokyo hospital bed occupancy hit 19.3%. Tokyo prefecture would ask for stronger coronavirus restrictions.

Europe

- UK PM Johnson said to be announcing plans to remove all existing coronavirus restrictions at an upcoming review.

- PM Johnson said to be planning a mass clear out of staff and a slew of populist polices. Conservative Party Chairman Dowden rejected calls for Johnson to step down as prime minister. Stressed that PM needs to take further steps after gatherings and address the culture that allowed them (Note: Number of letters of no confidence submitted to the backbench 1922 Committee said to have risen to 35 which is 19 short of what is needed to trigger a vote).

- Fitch affirmed Greece sovereign rating at 'BB' rating; Outlook revised to Positive from Stable.

- Canadian ratings agency DBRS affirmed Netherlands AAA rating, stable trend.

- Canadian ratings agency DBRS raised Ireland to AA (low), with Stable trend.

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.55% at 483.80, FTSE +0.70% at 7,595.64, DAX +0.33% at 15,935.75, CAC-40 +0.50% at 7,185.63, IBEX-35 +0.45% at 8,846.06, FTSE MIB +0.27% at 27,618.00, SMI +0.57% at 12,597.54, S&P 500 Futures +0.13%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally higher; among the sectors trending higher are materials and financials; while sectors among those trending lower are consumer discretionary and real estate; Unilever offers to acquire GlaxoSmithKline’s consumer business; Belgian government takes stake in Ageas; US closed for holiday.

Equities

- Financials: Credit Suisse [CSGN.CH] -1.5% (new Chairman).

- Healthcare: GlaxoSmithKline [GSK.UK] +4%, Unilever [UNA.NL] -6% (Unilever confirms approach for GSK's unit sale).

- Industrials: Renault [RNO.FR] +1% (deliveries), Stadler Rail [SRAIL.CH] +6% (large contract).

Speakers

- EU said to have kept trade duties on China Russia. US steel which would target silicon-electrical steel. New duties follow request from European industry to maintain duties in place since 2016.

- Chia President Xi stated that the world had found itself in a new period of turbulence and transformation. Global economy continued to face constraints with inflation risks rising.

- Saudi Oil Min Abdulaziz: unconcerned about rise in oil prices.

- Explosions said to have occurred in 3 petroleum tanker trucks in Abu Dhabi's Mussafah; drones likely behind explosion. Yemen Houthi rebels said to claim attack on UAE.

- Iraq Oil Min Jabbar: Aiming to begin LNG imports nu 2023.

Currencies/Fixed income

- USD was slightly firmer after a rough path being suffered last week as US yields remain higher despite the soft Retail Sales data from Friday. Overall the Fed tightening moves appeared to be largely priced in for the time being.

- GBP was steady despite the political uncertainty surrounding calls for PM Johnson to resign. UK inflation data on Wednesday could help extend a month-long rally in sterling.

- USD/JPY back at the mid 114 area ahead of Tuesday’s BOJ rate decision.

Economic data

- (NO) Norway Dec Trade Balance (NOK): 106.0B v 77.6B prior (record surplus).

- (DK) Denmark Dec PPI M/M: 3.9% v 6.1% prior; Y/Y: 33.0% v 29.1% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Dec PPI Industrial M/M: -0.1% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: 13.2% v 13.9%e.

- (TR) Turkey Dec Central Gov't Budget Balance (TRY): -145.7B v +32.0B prior.

- (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 724.5B v 724.6B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 655.1B v 650.6B prior.

- (IT) Italy Dec Final CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9% prelim; CPI Index (ex-tobacco): 106.2 v 105.7.

- (IT) Italy Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5% prelim; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.2% prelim.

Fixed income issuance

- (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.72% v 0.58% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.05x v 1.36x prior.

- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) sold total €M in 2024, 2032, 2036 and 2047 bonds.

Looking ahead

- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) to sell 2024, 2032, 2036 and 2047 bonds.

- (NG) Nigeria Dec CPI Y/Y: 14.9%e v 15.4% prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 ((DE) Germany to sell €3.0B in 12-month BuBill.

- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €1.0-3.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.

- Sells € vs. €0.5-1.5B indicated range in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.710% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.72x prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Trade Balance: No est v €6.2B prior.

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: +1.6%e v -0.1% prior.

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 06:30 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: +0.7%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: +0.5%e v -1.5% prior.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec CPI Core M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 4.7% prior.

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Trade Balance: $20.5Be v $19.8B prior; Export: $47.3Be v $46.6B prior; Imports: $26.8Be v $26.8B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance (bill and bonds).

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Securities Transactions (CAD): No est v 23.9B prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Manufacturing Sales M/M: 3.0%e v 4.3% prior.

- 09:00 (CA) Canada Dec Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 0.6% prior.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.6-6.8B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Trade Balance: -$1.6Be v -$1.5B prior; Total Imports: $6.2Be v $5.8B prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Manufacturing Production Y/Y: +3.0e v -2.7% prior; Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 9.6% prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.6%e v 14.2% prior.

- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BoC) Q4 Overall Business Outlook Survey: No est v 4.7 prior; Outlook Future Sales: No est v 9 prior.

- 15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Dec House Sales Y/Y: No est v -18.0% prior.

- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand NZIER Think Tank Business Opinion Survey.

- 17:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 106.0 prior.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan Nov Final Industrial Production M/M: No est v 7.2% prelim; Y/Y: N est v 5.4% prelim.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan Nov Capacity Utilization M/M: No est v 6.2% prior.

- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills.

- 22:30 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills.

- (JP) BOJ Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate on Excess Reserves (IOER) unchanged at -0.10% and maintain Yield Target (YCC) at 0.00%.

- BOJ Quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices.