Quiet session for Oil FUTs amid headline roulette

Asia market update: Geopolitical risks keep trading cautious and mixed; Quiet session for Oil FUTs amid headline roulette; Weak JP wage data and bond auction.

General trend and developments

- Trump wants to lower oil prices to $50/bbl as part of plan to control Venezuela oil – WSJ; The plan is expected to involve exerting control over Venezuelan state oil company PdVSA.

- (US) Oil companies are seeking both legal and financial guarantees to invest in Venezuela – FT.

- (US) White House official: Trump planning to meet with oil executives on Fri (1/09) on Venezuela production ramp-up - press.

- Samsung has traded roughly flat after reporting better than expected Q4 prelim results [to announce detailed earnings on Jan 29th].

- Chinese chipmakers outperform amid Nvidia news [Nvidia (NVDA): China govt said to tell tech companies to stop H200 chip orders; Govt may require domestic AI chip orders alongside Nvidia purchases - The Information].

- Shin-Etsu Chemical declines in Japan (**Reminder Jan 7th: China said to probe dichlorosilane from Japan - press [**Note: Dichlorosilane is used as a starting material for semiconducting silicon layers found in microelectronics]).

- Japan wage data soft, hurt by decline in one-off bonus payments.

- For the US, mixed data shows some labor market deterioration [Dec monthly ADP employment change: +41K V +50KE; December brought a rebound in hiring, even as large employers pulled back; NOV JOLTS JOB openings: 7.146M V 7.65ME (lowest since early 2021)].

- Australia 10-year bond yield declines by 10bps; Nothing seen out of the RBA Dep Gov Hauser regarding a possible rate hike; European bond yields also declined on Wed; Geopolitics additionally a focal point, along with oil prices?

- TWD trades at the lowest level since early May 2025; topics in focus include geopolitics; Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) trades at the lowest level since Apr 2025.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

- Upcoming US data includes Challenger Job Cuts, Initial jobless claims, Q3 Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Oct Trade Balance, NY Fed 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow est, Fed weekly balance sheet.

- Asia data releases for Fri are South Korea Nov Current Account, Japan Nov Household Spending, Japan Dec FX Reserves, Japan Nov Leading and Coincident Indices; China Dec inflation data.

- Asian corporate earnings due today include Fast Retailing, Seven & I, LG Energy.

- Japan MOF is due to sell 3-month bills on Fri [Jan 9th].

- Sales figures are also due out of Taiwan Semi for Dec [Fri].

Holidays in Asia this week

- None seen.

- Japan markets are due to close for holiday on Jan 12th (Mon).

- US markets have a holiday on Jan 19th (Mon).

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 8,701.

- RBA Dep Gov Hauser: Reiterates likely seen the last interest rate cut in the cycle; Nov CPI data was helpful, but largely as expected - Press interview.

- Australia Nov Trade Balance (A$): 2.94B v 5.0Be; Exports M/M: 2.9% v 3.4% prior; Goods credits (exports) decreased $1.35B (2.9%) driven by Metal ores and minerals.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng index opens -0.6% at 26,302.

- Shanghai Composite opens -0.2% at 4,077.

- Beijing is being 'urged' to let the Yuan (CNY) strengthen - FT.

- Nvidia [NVDA]: China govt said to tell tech companies to stop H200 chip orders; Govt may require domestic AI chip orders alongside Nvidia purchases - The Information.

- China Industry Ministry (MIIT): Held meeting with power and storage battery industry about regulating competition; to enhance inspection of battery prices; Necessary to optimize capacity management.

- China MIIT issues action plan on industrial internet and AI integration; Vows to strengthen supply of computing power - press [from Jan 7th].

- China said to have hacked email systems of US Congressional CMTE staff in Dec 2025 - FT.

- China investors said to 'rush' to equity funds amid outflows from bonds - Shanghai Securities News; The article notes bond funds face 'mounting' redemption pressure.

- China DEC Foreign reserves: $3.358T V $3.360TE [from Jan 7th].

-China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.0197 v 7.0187 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY9.9B; Net injects CNY9.9B v CNY500.2B drain prior.

-(CN) PBOC expected to net inject liquidity later this month [Jan] by using various operations - China Securities Journal.

- China PBOC to conduct CNY1.1T outright RRP on Thursday.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens -0.4% at 51,769.

- Japan sells ¥700B VS. ¥700B indicated in 30-year JGB bonds; AVG yield: 3.4470% V 3.4270% prior, bid-to-cover: 3.14X V 4.04X prior.

- Japan Nov labor cash earnings Y/Y: 0.5% V 2.3%E.

- Japan Tokyo Dec Avg Office Vacancies: 2.2% v 2.4% prior [multi-year low].

- Japan sells ¥3.8T vs. ¥3.8T indicated in 6-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.7697% v 0.6942% prior, bid-to-cover: 3.81x v 3.51x prior.

- Japan releases weekly flows data [period ended Jan 2nd]: Foreign buying of Japan equities: +¥124.9B v -¥1.23T prior; Japan buying of foreign bonds: -¥223.6B v +¥103B prior; Foreign buying of Japan bonds [long-term debt securities]: ¥273.5B v -¥46.2B prior.

- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: Confirms China is deploying drilling rig in the East China Sea on the west side of the median line.

- US and Japan held meeting on Wed related to investment initiative - Press.

- Mizuho Bank: To raise long-term prime rate to 2.75% from 2.6% - press.

South Korea

- Kospi opens -0.4% at 4,531.

- Samsung Electronics [005930.KR] Reports Prelim Q4 (KRW) Op approx 20.0T v 17.8Te, Rev 93.0T v 91.0Te; To announce detailed earnings on Jan 29th.

- South Korea Finance Min: FX market is showing heightened volatility; reiterates FX rate is out of line with fundamentals; Won's sharp weakness eased, yet volatility remains.

Other Asia

- Indonesia Dec Foreign Reserves: $156.5B v $150.1B prior.

North America

- (US) Dec ISM services index: 54.4 V 52.2E.

- President Trump: have just been informed that Venezuela is going to be purchasing ONLY American Made Products, with the money they receive from our new Oil Deal.

- US Senate to vote on Venezuela war powers resolution at 11am tomorrow.

- (CO) US Pres Trump: Arrangements are being made between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Foreign Minister of Colombia - Truth Social post.

- (US) Vice President Vance: Seized oil tanker was 'fake' Russia tanker; Trump to make the ultimate determination on Greenland - Fox News Interview; President Trump is prepared to 'go as far as' he has to on Greenland.

- (US) Follow Up: Trump Administration said to be drafting executive order related to [housing] affordability, the announcement on housing is expected in the 'coming weeks' - Politico.

- US Pres Trump: I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes; Will be calling on Congress to codify it - Truth Social post.

- US Pres Trump signs EO banning defense stock buybacks, as expected.

- US FCC said to exempt certain foreign made drones from new Govt restrictions - press.

- Ford [F]: Exec reportedly hints at robotaxis with plans for off-road technology - press.

Europe

- (DK) Follow Up: US officials said to be 'rushing' to compile options related to business deals and other ways to increase links to Greenland - US financial press.

- ECB's Pereira (Portugal): Price stability is in place, and urges EU reforms.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 -1.2% ; ASX 200 +0.3% ; Hang Seng -1.3% ; Shanghai Composite +0.1% ; Kospi+1.2%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.3%; DAX -0.1%; FTSE100 -0.1%.

- EUR 1.1682-1.1672 ; JPY 156.95-156.63 ; AUD 0.6725-0.6701 ; NZD 0.5784-0.5760.

- Gold -0.6% at $4,434/oz; BTC -1.6% at $91.0K; Crude Oil +0.6% at $56.31bbl; Copper +0.2% $5.8622/lb.