Quiet risk-off day in Asia ahead of key US NFP data tonight

General trend

- With markets focused intently on jobs data out of the US since US Fed's Powell affirmed at Jackson Hole in late August that the Fed's dual mandate of inflation and jobs was now squarely in play, traders avoided taking large positions in Asia today, with a general risk-off tone ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls out the US tonight.

- JPY pushed higher against the USD to break 143, to levels not seen since the early August volatility.

- Hong Kong canceled trading today due to Typhoon Yagi.

- The most significant piece of data today in Asia was Australia’s July Home Loans value, coming in well above estimates, potentially justifying the hawkish tone to RBA Gov Bullock’s comments yesterday about potentially needing to raise rates if CPI does not come down. Investor loan value and Owner-Occupier Loan value also rose.

- Continued interest in Japan regarding Nippon Steel's attempted acquisition of US Steel, with Japan's business lobby saying interest is especially high from those considering investing in the US.

- The Board of Seven & i today said Couche-Tard’s offer is not in best interest of holders, revealing the offer was $14.86/shr in cash; but is “opportunistic and grossly undervalues co”.

- The competition is heating up for candidates in the Japan LDP leadership race. Japan Ex-Min Koizumi confirmed intention to run on Sept 27th; Plans to strengthen economy to grow even with inflation, while the other leader in the polls, Shigeru Ishiba, said he is unsure whether it is the right timing for BOJ to raise interest rates

- US equity FUTs -0.2% to 0.6% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Friday Sept 6th (Fri night US Aug NFP).

- Saturday Sept 7th CN Aug Trade Balance.

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Sept 2nd Vietnam, (Mon night US and Canada).

- Tue Sept 3rd Vietnam.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens flat at 7,984.

- Australia July Home Loans Value M/M: 3.9% v 1.0%e.

- New Zealand Q2 Volume of All Buildings Q/Q: -0.2% v -2.7%e.

- New Zealand RBNZ: Two-year home loan rates drop to 5.94% average in Aug; lowest level since 2022 - financial press.

China/Hong Kong

- Hong Kong cancels trading due to Typhoon Yagi.

- Shanghai Composite opens +0.1% at 2,791.

- Former Chinese PBOC Gov Yi Gang: China's economic recovery is still underway but relatively slow - Bund Summit.

- China Premier Li Qiang: Chinese companies in Africa should create more local jobs - press.

- US targets China with new quantum and chip-related export curbs, aligning with export rules in Japan, Netherlands, and other allies.

- China to review anti-dumping duties over chemicals from US and EU – press [overnight update].

- China PBoC Dep Gov Lu Lei: Will continue to implement supportive policy; to step up the use of existing tools to aid growth [overnight update].

- China FX Regulator SAFE: To prevent risks from abnormal cross-border capital flows [overnight update].

- China MOF sells 30-year Special Bonds: Avg Yield: 2.3062% v 2.3641% prior.

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.0925 v 7.0989 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY142B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY111B v net drains CNY88B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +0.4% at 36,815.

- Japan July Household Spending Y/Y: 0.1% v 1.2%e.

- Japan July Preliminary Leading Index CI: 109.5 v 109.4e; Coincident Index: 117.1 v 116.2e.

- Japan Aug Total Reserve Assets: $1.23T v $1.22T prior.

- Seven & I 3382.JP Couche-Tard offer is not in best interest of holders; Offer was $14.86/shr cash; Offer was opportunistic and grossly undervalues co.

- Japan Business Lobby Keidanren: Nippon Steel's attempted acquisition of US Steel has attracted significant interest from Japanese companies; Especially those considering investing in the US.

- LDP Leadership candidate Shigeru Ishiba; Unsure whether it is the right timing for BOJ to raise interest rates - financial press.

- Japan Econ Min Saito: Japan to provide ¥350B in storage battery subsidies for 12 such projects - press.

- Japan Ex-Min Koizumi: Confirms intention to run for PM in LDP Leadership election on Sept 27th; Plans To strengthen economy to grow even with inflation.

- Japan sells ¥4.6T vs. ¥4.6T indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.0778% v 0.0946% prior; bid- to-cover: 4.20x v 3.57x prior.

- Toyota with Nissan plan to help raise Japan's battery output by half – Nikkei [overnight update].

- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Board member Takata Q&A: No 'specific image in mind' when we scrutinize economy and prices ; Will conduct policy by looking at the economy [overnight update].

South Korea

- Kospi opens flat at 2,576.

- South Korea July Current Account: $9.1B v $12.3B prior.

Other Asia

- Vietnam Aug Trade Balance: $4.5B v $3.7Be.

- Vietnam Aug CPI Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.9%e.

- Vietnam Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.9% v 9.4% prior.

- Vietnam Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 9.5% v 11.2% prior.

- Philippines July Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 3.1% prior.

- (MY) MALAYSIA CENTRAL BANK (BNM) LEAVES OVERNIGHT POLICY RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.00%; AS EXPECTED [overnight update].

- Taiwan Aug CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e [overnight update].

North America

- Qualcomm Said to be exploring buying parts of Intel's chip design unit - financial press.

- (US) Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025): Economic data justifies multiple rate cuts.

- (US) Aug Challenger Job Cuts: 75.9K v 25.9K prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 9.2% prior.

- (US) Q2 FINAL NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 2.5% V 2.5%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 0.4% V 0.8%E.

- (US) AUG ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +99K V +145KE (lowest since Jan 2021, below all estimates); Job-stayers median change in annual pay 4.8% (holds at lowest rate in 3-years).

- (US) AUG INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 227K V 230KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.838M V 1.87ME.

- (CA) Canada Q2 Labor Productivity Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.1%e.

- (CA) Canada Aug Services PMI: 47.8 v 47.3 prior.

- (US) AUG FINAL S&P SERVICES PMI: 55.7 V 55.0E; Confirms 19th month of expansion.

- (US) AUG ISM SERVICES INDEX: 51.5 V 51.4E; New Orders Index: 53.0 v 52.4 prior; Prices Paid: 57.3 v 57.0 prior.

- (US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +13 BCF VS. +27 BCF TO +29 BCF INDICATED RANGE.

- (US) August preliminary NA Class 8 Net Orders 13.4K, +2% m/m, -16% y/y - FTRintel.com.

- (US) DOE CRUDE: -6.9M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +0.8M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -0.4M V -0.5ME.

- (US) USPS proposes temporary rate changes for 2024 holiday shipping season.

Europe

- (IE) Ireland Q2 Current Account: €35.5B v €22.6B prior.

- (IT) Italy PM Meloni said to target budget deficit to GDP ratio below 3.0% by 2026 (in-line with recent speculation).

- (FR) France Pres Macron names Michel Barnier as new PM (former Brexit negotiator and ex-FA minister).

- (PL) Polish Central Bank Gov (NBP) Glapinski: Core CPI was lower in Aug than headline CPI - post rate decision press conference.

- OPEC+ said to agree to delay Oct output increase by 2 months - press.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 -0.7%; ASX 200 +0.3%; Hang Seng closed; Shanghai Composite -0.3%; Kospi -1.0%.

- Equity S&P500 FUTs -0.2%; Nasdaq100 FUTs -0.6%, Dax -0.1%; FTSE100 flat.

- EUR 1.1108-1.1119: JPY 142.53-143.49; AUD 0.6726-0.6744; NZD 0.6213-0.6226.

- Gold +0.3% at $2,550/oz; Crude Oil +0.2% at $69.27/brl; Copper -0.3% at $4.1292/lb.