Public debt set to increase in most countries by 2030

In the major advanced economies, public deficits remain high, particularly in the United States, the United Kingdom and France, where fiscal consolidation is expected to continue. However, the effort required to reduce the primary deficit would be partly offset by an increase in interest payments.

Italy and Spain are expected to continue to post more moderate deficits, mainly due to their ability to generate primary surpluses, which are expected to increase further. Japan and Germany are expected to see their budget balances deteriorate in 2025–26, due to an increase in spending in line with the priorities of the governments that came to power in 2025. In Germany, however, this development is expected to be followed by consolidation, bringing the public deficit back below 3% in 2030.

Interest expenditures are expected to rise in countries where they are currently low – Germany, Japan and France – and stabilise at a high level in countries where they are currently higher – Spain and Italy – without, however, increasing (the effect of the reduction in the public debt ratio offsetting the rise in apparent interest rates).

In the United Kingdom, the slowdown in inflation (24% of debt is indexed) would limit interest expenditure, despite the rise in interest rates. In the United States, interest expenditure would increase further under the dual effect of high interest rates (despite the reduction in the average maturity of debt) and an increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio.

Download The Full Eco Flash