Prime Minister May and Brexit’s one-party approval

The approval of the Brexit treaty to secure Britain’s exit from the European Union was always a one-party affair. 

More than two years in the making the agreement negotiated between Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative government and the EU Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, was never going to be rejected by the European Union’s 28 members. The EU negotiators were working within the boundaries set by the Union’s dominate players Germany and France. In essence the EU side is pre-approved.

Prime Minister Theresa May has no such security. Almost all of the politicians and Members of Parliament who supported the Brexit vote are Tories but that does not mean that all Tories, or even a majority are in favor of the UK leaving the European Union.  Ms May's promise to carry through the decision of the Brexit referendum corralled the Conservative party into officially backing the exit but that did not change the convictions of many individual members.

Ms May’s party is split between those would prefer to remain in the EU and those who support Brexit.  This latter group is fragmented between those who want more freedom from the EU than Ms May was able to obtain from the Commission, Boris Johnson the former Foreign Secretary rejects the current treaty, and those who with varying degrees of distaste would approve the deal as the best arrangement that is possible.

In the end Ms May’s most persuasive argument to her own party may be the alternatives to the Brexit deal.

For Tory Brexiteers a rejection of the treaty would likely have two outcomes. Ms May could be deposed as leader in a Conservative confidence vote. The party would then be forced to choose a new head in the midst of a public intra-party dispute, while harboring a thin majority in the Commons and whose leading candidate for the post is Boris Johnson. Such turmoil could easily lead to a no-confidence vote in the Commons and a general election.

After the Conservative’s narrow victory in the last election, this cannot be an outcome desired by many MPs. A general election, regardless of the result could be the forerunner of a second exit referendum and a reversal of the entire project.

For the Tory Remainers scuttling the treaty without ending Ms May’s ministership, would leave the road to a non-negotiated exit from the EU and economic chaos wide open. Ms May has said there  will not be a second referendum and the chance of arranging a revised treaty in the four months left before the departure date of March 29^th is very slim. But removing Ms May as Prime Minister brings a general election to the fore, a vote that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party would be odds on favorite to win.

The Brexit treaty pleases neither Tory faction.  It does, however, avoid each side’s bane, a second referendum for the Brexiteers, a hard Brexit for the Remainers and for both, the most unpalatable result of all, a Labour government.