Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/RUB 1H Chart: Rate approached June high
The USD/RUB exchange rate has been bounded in a symmetrical triangle since early April. The pair managed to remain in this pattern for several weeks prior to breaking to the upside late last week. As a result, the Greenback continued to trade in a six-week ascending triangle.
The US Dollar reached a June peak against the Russian Ruble at 64.16 earlier this week—a level which have already provided strong resistance.
From theoretical point of view, the rate should edge lower during the following days to retrace from the breached triangle pattern near 62.50. This support level is likewise strengthened by the monthly PP and the 55– and 100-period (4H) SMAs.
However, the 55-hour SMA might guide the pair higher for a brief period of time and above the aforementioned June high before the expected decline takes place.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Bearish in medium term
USD/NOK is trading in a long-term ascending channel. The rate bounced off its upper boundary at 8.33—its highest position in 2018 - late in May.
Subsequently, the US Dollar initiated a new wave down towards the other senior channel line located circa 7.90. This bearish movement was stopped by the monthly S1, the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement and the 55– and 200-day SMAs at the 8.00 mark. This resulted in a reversal back to the upside.
It seems that the pair might be ready to breach the short-term ascending channel to the downside, thus resuming its decline until the bottom channel line in the 8.00/05 range is reached somewhere in July. A possible confirmation of this bearish scenario should be provided by the US Dollar breaching the combined support of the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs at 8.10.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remained bid above 0.6500
AUD/USD extended further its bullish performance, advancing for the fourth session in a row on Thursday, although a sustainable breakout of the key 200-day SMA at 0.6526 still remain elusive.
EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750
EUR/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s small downtick and resumed its uptrend north of 1.0700 the figure, always on the back of the persistent sell-off in the US Dollar ahead of key PCE data on Friday.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options
Bitcoin (BTC) price has markets in disarray, provoking a broader market crash as it slumped to the $62,000 range on Thursday. Meanwhile, reverberations from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to influence the market.
US economy: slower growth with stronger inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.