OPEC+ confirms supply hike

Asia market update: Friday’s quiet trading bleeds into the new week on JP holiday; OPEC+ confirms supply hike; Focus on US Oct ISM Mnfg PMI, AU RBA tomorrow.

General trend and developments

- In otherwise quiet Asian trading, another strong day for Korea’s Kospi, +3.2% hitting a fresh record high >4,545, as SK Hynix hit another high of KRW600K and Samsung up another 3%. (Nikkei closed for holiday).

- China’s private RatingDog Manufacturing continued to stay in expansion for the third month, counter to the official PMI figures last Friday which recorded their 7th month of contraction and lowest since April.

- South Korea’ Manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction in Oct, with manufacturers noting that tariffs further impacted the sector, as new export orders fell into decline again, particularly emphasizing the decrease in US export demand.
- Australia Cotality Home Value for October saw the biggest increase in over two years.

- OPEC+ confirmed over the weekend to a small oil output hike of 137K bpd for December and a pause for Q1 2026. Oil prices little changed on the weekend announcement.

- US released its Fact Sheet for China trade over the weekend. Confirmed one-year suspension of additional 100% US tariffs along with a reduction of 10% (down to 47% overall) and specified US soybean purchase amounts by China. China to also wind back rare earths export curbs for one year, halt probes into US chip firms, end retaliatory action against US probe into its maritime industry and work to ensure resumption of Nexperia chips.

- Pres Trump indicated in a 60 Minutes interview he was Not really considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles for its fight against Russia.

- In Hong Kong the CEO’s of HSBC and Standard Chartered talked up their crypto offerings, with HBSC saying its tokenized gold product saw .'massive adoption' by Hong Kong retail clients, while the Standard Chartered CEO believes all transactions will settle on blockchain 'eventually', and 'all' money will be digital.

- Philippine equities slumped a further -2.8% to their lowest level since early October, 2022.
- Note: Australia RBA Rate Decision tomorrow (Tuesday).
Peak Japanese corporate earnings from tomorrow onwards.

- US equity FUTs +0.2% to +0.3% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted releases, using Asian time zone)

- Mon Nov 3rd CN Oct RatingDog Mnfg PMI, (Mon night US Oct ISM Mnfg PMI).

- Tue Nov 4th KR Oct CPI, AU RBA Rate Decision, (Tue night US Sept JOLTS).

- Wed Nov 5th NZ Q3 jobs, NZ RBNZ Presser, JP BOJ Minutes, CN Oct RatingDog Services PMI, ID Q3 GDP, (Wed night US Oct ISM Services PMI, US Oct ADP Jobs).

- Thu Nov 6th AU Sept Trade Balance, (Thu night UK BOE Rate Decision).

- Fri Nov 7th JP Sept Household Spending, CN Oct Trade Balance, (Fri night US Nov Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Nov 3rd Japan.

- Wed Nov 5th India.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens -0.4% at 8,855.

- Australia Oct Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 v 49.7 prelim (Confirms first contraction in 10 months) – update.

- Australia Sept Household Spending M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.5%e.

- Australia Oct ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements M/M: -2.2% v -3.5% prior (fourth straight decline).

- Australia Oct Melbourne Institute Inflation M/M: 0.3% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 3.0% prior.

- Australia Oct Cotality Home Value M/M: 1.1% v 0.9% prior (most in over two years - update).

- New Zealand Sept Building Permits M/M: 7.2% v 6.1% prior (update).

- RBNZ publishes stress test results for ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank and Westpac NZ (update).

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.4% at 25,999; Shanghai Composite opens flat at 3,954.

- China Oct ratingdog ManufacturingPMI: 50.6 V 50.7E (third month of expansion).

- China considering 3-year and 5-year Senior unsecured USD bond offering - Term sheet.

- HSBC CEO: CEO: Bank's tokenized gold product saw 'massive adoption' by Hong Kong retail clients, now the third largest such product 'globally'.

- Standard Chartered CEO: CEO: The bank and the leadership of Hong Kong believe all transactions will settle on blockchain 'eventually', and 'all' money will be digital- HKMA: Hong Kong considering to issue Offshore Yuan, HK$, Euro and USD digitally native green bonds - term sheet.

- Follow up: Hong Kong Financial Sec: Many asset managers in Hong Kong considering opportunities to tokenise money market funds - financial press.

- Hong Kong CEO Lee: Hong Kong to establish bond connections with Switzerland and UAE - press.

- China Commerce Ministry: We will consider exemptions for Nexperia chip export ban [weekend update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.0867 v 7.0880 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY78B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY259B v injects CNY187B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 closed for holiday.

Korea

- Kospi opens +0.4% at 4,123.

- South Korea Oct PMI Manufacturing: 49.4 v 50.7 prior (Moves back into contraction after 1 month expansion).

- South Korea President Lee: Will aid Trump to play peacemaker role on North Korea [weekend update].

Other Asia

- Indonesia Oct CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.6%e.

- Thailand Finance Ministry: Thailand end-Sept public debt-to-GDP ratio 64.8% v 64.6% m/m.

- Malaysia Oct PMI Manufacturing: 49.5 v 49.8 prior (17th month of contraction) - update.

- Thailand Oct PMI Manufacturing: 56.6 v 54.6 prior (6th month of expansion - update).

- Indonesia Oct PMI Manufacturing: 51.2 v 50.4 prior (third month of expansion - update).

- Vietnam Oct PMI Manufacturing: 54.5 v 50.4 prior (4th month of expansion - update).

- Taiwan Oct PMI Manufacturing: 47.7 v 46.8 prior (8th month of contraction).

- Philippines Oct PMI Manufacturing: 50.1 v 49.9 prior (Moves back into expansion after one month contraction).

North America

- (US) Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China - update from Nov 1st.

- (US) Pres Trump on CBS 60 Minutes: Not really considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles - interviewed by Norah O’Donnell last Fri at Mar-a-Lago, FL).

- (US) Pres. Trump: Next week’s Case on Tariffs is one of the most important in the History of the Country. - post on Truth Social.

Europe

- (IE) Ireland Oct PMI Manufacturing: 50.9 v 51.8 prior (10th month of expansion).

- OPEC+ to pause output increases in Q1 2026; confirms to raise production by 137K bpd in Dec- Press.

- (NG) Trump threatens to cut off all US aid to Nigeria over the killing of Christians; Says US might go in to Nigeria with “guns-a-blazing” - Truth Social.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 closed, ASX 200 +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.8%; Shanghai Composite +0.3%; Kospi +3.2%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.3%; DAX +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.2%.

- EUR 1.1521-1.1539; JPY 153.99-154.25; AUD 0.6539-0.6556; NZD 0.5713-0.5728.

- Gold +0.5% at $4,016/oz; BTC -2.3% at $108,180; Crude Oil +0.4% at $61.21bbl; Copper -0.3% at $5.0938/lb.