OPEC and payroll events in focus

Notes/Observations

- Important day with OPEC+ meeting, US Payroll data taking center stage

- OPEC meeting yesterday failed to deliver any final deal on production cuts as its waited Russia's contribution

- German CDU party congress to find a replacement for Angela Merkel (vote seen late European afternoon)

Asia:

- BoJ Gov Kuroda stated that would keep closely monitoring overseas economic risks. Reiterated view that saw no need to ease policy further at this time

- BOJ Dep Gov Amamiya reiterated view that prolonged low rates contribute to low bank profitability

- Japan Oct Real Cash Earnings registered its 3rd straight decline (Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.3%e)

- White House, Trudeau sought to distance themselves from recent arrest of Huawei CFO

Europe:

- Italy PM Conte stated that the 2019 budget deficit was not discussed in recent ministers meeting. Italy cabinet to meet on Friday evening, Dec 7th

- Italy PM Conte and 5 Star Party said to be in favor of Finance Minister Tria's resignation but League leader Salvini opposed. Reports later circulated that Fin Min Tria had no intention of resigning

- Splits said to have emerge in the PM May's top team on how to respond in the likely event that her deal was rejected by MPs next week. Advisers to PM May said to urge her to support second referendum but she remains opposed to the idea. Other advisers said to argue for a softer Brexit

Americas:

- White House official: President Trump was unaware of Huawei extradition request before dinner with China President Xi at the G20 summit in Argentina - Fed still expected to raise rates in Dec, but now considering if it should signal a 'wait and see' stance in 2019

- (US) Fed Chair Powell reiterated that economy currently was performing very well overall; US Labor market was very strong by many measures; did not comment on monetary policy

- (US) Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): Needed to be 'nimble' about responding to unexpected economic circumstances; So far US tariffs did not have 'big' effect on overall growth and inflation, direct impact of tariffs so far was relatively 'small', 'full-blown' trade war would be real worry

- (US) Fed's Bostic (dove, voter): Fed policy ought to be taking more neutral position; Fed was within shouting distance of neutral policy

 

Macro

(DE) Germany: Industrial production unexpectedly contracted -0.5% m/m in October, with the September number revised down a tick to 0.1%. The main drag came from the production of consumer and energy goods, which both fell for -3.2% m/m and for a second consecutive month. The production sector has very limited spare capacity, which means monthly growth rates are likely to continue to look drab, even if companies continue to sit on a large number of unfilled orders.

(FR) France: Industrial production was higher than expected at 1.2% m/m in the October reading, while September was revised up to -1.6% m/m from -1.8%. Despite this annual rates remain firmly in negative territory, at -0.7% y/y for overall production and -1.3% y/y for manufacturing. Bigger picture, the French industry has been contracting since the adoption of the euro. It was not able to recover after either of the 2001 or 2008 crises because the euro, a currency stronger than the French franc would be, has become a burden to France's economy.

(US) United States: According to the Fed's Z.1 report household net worth increased at an 8.0% rate in Q3 to a fresh record-high of $109.0T . Net worth in Q3 was 98.4% above the $55.0 T trough in Q1'09. Asset value growth in Q3 included a 3.5% growth rate in real estate, and 9.0% for financial asset values. Total liabilities are still just 17.1% above the $13.6 T cycle-low in Q1'12 that marked a significant -7.0% drop from the $14.6T cycle-high in Q3'08 that is yet to have been exceeded.

 

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +1.4% at 348.1, FTSE +1.5% at 6802, DAX +0.9% at 10907, CAC-40 +1.4% at 4847, IBEX-35 +1.3% at 8826, FTSE MIB +1.1% at 18850, SMI +1.9% at 8826, S&P 500 Futures -0.3%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices are rebounding from the sharp declines yesterday after US indices faded the earlier losses after the European close yesterday. Asian markets were mixed as fallout over the arrest of Huawei CFO continues to weigh. On the corporate front, investing platform provider AJ Bell soared 30% following its IPO; Berkeley Group trades higher after earnings and raised outlook; ABF falls after reporting a difficult November for Primark while affirming their outlook, Amer Sports trades higher after Anta Sports confirmed offer to acquire company for €40/shr. In other news Fresenius SE trades sharply lower after cutting its 2020 outlook; CFD names trade higher after noting they will see minimal impact following the FCA proposed measures on CFDs and Binary Options. Looking ahead notable earners include Big Lots, Johnson Outdoors and Vail Resorts.

 

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Amer Sports [AMEAS.FI] +8% (confirms to be acquired), Associated British Foods Plc [ABF.UK] -2.5% (trading update; exec comments), Tesco [TSCO.UK] +5% (analyst action)

- Consumer staples: Carl Zeiss Meditec [AFX.DE] +1% (earnings, initial FY19 guidance)

- Financials: Berkeley Group Holdings [BKG.UK] +3% (earnings), HSBC [HSBA.UK] +1% (said to not be target of Huawei investigation), Danske Bank [DANSKE.DK] +2.5% (in talks to sell unit), IG Group [IGG.UK] +2.5% (response to FCA)

- Healthcare: AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +1% (study update), Fresenius SE & Co [FRE.DE] -12% (CEO comments), Fresenius Medical [FME.DE] -7% (CEO comments)

- Industrials: Volvo AB [VOLVO.SE] +1% (unit's CEO comments), Vinci [DG.FR] +2.5% (awarded contract), Robit [ROBIT.FI] -1% (CEO to step down)

- Technology: Basware [BAS1V.FI] +9.5% (confirms in talks on takeover offer)

 

Speakers

- Italy Dep PM Di Maio stated that saw no need to cut reform in budget and Italy would l avoid disciplinary procedure

- Italy Stats Agency (Istat) Monthly Economic Note: Leading indicator was stable after falling in previous months

- Brexit campaigners said to quietly preparing for second referendum

- OPEC delegate: Russia might agree to slightly larger oil production cut from 150K bpd

- Saudi Oil Min Al-Falih stated that he was no confident of a production cut deal being reached today - Nigeria Oil Min Kachikwu: An OPEC+ production cut seen close to 1M bpd was most likely scenario

- Russia Energy Minister Novak said to meet Saudi and Iranian oil ministers ahead of main OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. Russia said to want to cut oil output by a maximum of 150K bpd for first 3 months of 2019, output could then be reviewed (**Reminder: On Dec 6th Russia Energy Min Novak stated that it was difficult for Russia to cut oil production at a fast pace during the winter period)

- Russia said to be ready to cut output by 200K bpd if OPEC offered to cut more than 1M bpd

 

Currencies/Fixed Income

- USD was little changed against most major pairs with key focus on the upcoming November non-farm payrolls data.

- EUR/USD was seen likely to remain in its recent narrow trading range of 1.13-1.14. The greenback recovered a bit after falling Thursday in the aftermath of softer-than-expected ADP employment data.

- GBP/USD was lower by 0.3% around 1.2750 on contijued Brexit jitters. Reports have circulated that PM May could delay a vote in parliament on the U.K.-EU Brexit agreement, which is scheduled for Tuesday and is expected to be rejected

 

Economic Data

- (ZA) South Africa Nov Gross Reserves: $50.7B v $50.4Be; Net Reserves: $42.6B v $42.3Be

- (DE) Germany Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.1%e

- (DE) Germany Q3 Labor Costs Q/Q: 1.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.1% prior

- (DK) Denmark Oct Industrial Production M/M: +1.0% v -0.4% prior

- (NO) Norway Oct Industrial Production M/M: +2.3% v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 0.7% prior

- (NO) Norway Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.5% prior

- (FI) Finland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.2B v -€0.1B prior

- (RO) Romania Q3 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.9%e; Y/Y: % v 4.3%e

- (MY) Malaysia end-Nov Foreign Reserves: $102.0B v $102/1B prior

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): No est v 131.0K prior

- (FR) France Oct Trade Balance: -€4.1B v -€5.8Be

- (FR) France Oct Current Account Balance: -€0.7B v -€1.9B prior

- (FR) France Oct Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.4%e

- (FR) France Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.4% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.5%e

- (CH) Swiss Nov Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 748.8B v 750.0Be

- (ES) Spain Q3 INE House Price Index Q/Q: 2.2% v 2.6% prior; Y/Y: 7.2%v 6.8% prior

- (AT) Austria Nov Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 5.4% prior

- (CZ) Czech Oct National Trade Balance (CZK): 5.7B v 9.0Be

- (CZ) Czech Oct Industrial Output Y/Y: 6.7% v 5.4%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 10.4% v 11.8% prior

- (HU) Hungary Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.3B v €0.4Be

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Nov 30th: 10.12T v 10.23T prior

- (TW) Taiwan Nov Trade Balance: $4.7B v $3.8Be; Exports Y/Y: -3.4% v +1.3%e; Imports Y/Y: 1.1% v 12.0%e

- (UK) Nov Halifax House Prices M/M: -1.4% v +0.2%e; 3M/Y: 0.3% v 1.0%e

- (SE) Sweden Nov Budget Balance (SEK): 15.6B v 3.1B prior

- (CN) China Nov Foreign Reserves: $3.062T v $3.044Te

- (IS) Iceland Q3 GDP Q/Q: % v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 6.7% prior

- (IT) Italy Oct Retail Sales M/M: +0.1% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.8%e

- (SG) Singapore Nov Foreign Reserves: $289.5B v $290.3B prior

- (CZ) Czech Nov International Reserves: $141.4B v $140.7B prior

- (UK) Nov BoE/TNS Inflation Quarterly Survey Next 12-month: 3.2% v 3.0% prior (5-year high)

- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Household Consumption Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.6%e

- (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: -1.1% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 9.0%e

- (CY) Cyprus Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.7% prelim; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6% prelim

**Fixed Income Issuance**

- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 2027, 2028, 2034 and 2055 bonds

- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR650M vs. ZAR650M indicated in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 bonds

 

Looking Ahead

- (IT) Bank of Italy Report on Balance-Sheet Aggregates

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: -0.1%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.6% prior

- 06:00 (CL) Chile Nov CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior

- 06:00 (CL) Chile Nov CPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior

- 06:00 OPEC and Non-Opec meeting in Vienna

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell €4.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£1.0B, £1.5B and £2.0B respectively)

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov Trade Balance: $0.6Be v -$0.2B prior; Total Exports: $6.3Be v $6.6B prior; Total Imports: $5.6Be v $6.8B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.2B prior

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov International Reserves: No est v $37.4B prior

- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Nov 30th: No est v $ $392.8B prior

- 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 1.5% Feb 2026 RIKB Bonds

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed)

- 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Official Reserve Assets: $460.0Be v $459.6B prior

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Official Reserves: No est v $111.4B prior

- 08:10 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:30 (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +198Ke v +250K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: 200Ke v +246K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +18Ke v +32K prior

- 08:30 (US) Nov Unemployment Rate3.7%e v 3.7% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 7.4% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.9%e v 62.9% prior

- 08:30 (US) Nov Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: +10.0Ke v +11.2K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +33.9K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -22.6K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 65.2% prior; Hourly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 4.9% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior

- 09:30 (TR) Turkey Nov Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -5.4B prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 97.0e v 97.5 prior

- 10:00 (US) Oct Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prelim; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: No est v 0.9% prelim

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

- 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (S&P on Estonia, Iceland Sovereign Debt; Moody's on Italy, Iraq sovereign d; Fitch on Iceland Sovereign Debt

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig count data

- 14:00 (IT) Italy cabinet meets on 2019 budget

- 15:00 (US) Oct Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $10.9B prior

- 20:30 (CN) China Nov CPI Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.5% prior; PPI Y/Y: 2.7%e v 3.3% prior

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