NZD/USD puts life back to short-term uptrend

NZD/USD marks new higher high for 2024.
Positive momentum might soften; eyes on 0.6368.

Christina Parthenidou XM

NZDUSD stretched its exciting rally to a new nine-month high of 0.6354 on Wednesday before experiencing mild losses.

The pair surpassed August’s bar with a bang, shifting the spotlight to the December 2023 peak of 0.6368. Given the strengthening overbought signals coming from the RSI and the stochastic oscillator, the rally could soon calm down.

A decisive close above 0.6368 could stage a new bull wave towards the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the latest downfall at 0.6415. The 0.6465 zone posed some limitations during December 2022-February 2023. Hence, a step above it might be necessary for a continuation towards the 0.6500-0.6536 resistance formed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 downtrend and the 2023 top.

On the downside, the broken resistance line from July 2023 could act as support around the August peak of 0.6297. If there are more declines, expect congestion near 0.6250 and then around the important area of 0.6230. In the event that the latter also collapses, there is a strong chance of a rapid fall to 0.6165. Even lower, the door could open for the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) seen near 0.6100.

In conclusion, NZDUSD might face weaker upward pressure in the coming sessions as it sails in overbought territory. To attract new buyers, the market requires a clear close above 0.6368.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

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