- NFP leading indicators table is mixed again, with the positive US labor market trend showing some signs of exhaustion.
- Dismal ADP Employment report leads negative signals provided by hard data indicators.
- Business and consumer sentiment surveys show optimism signals, but will it translate into a good US jobs report?
Things have been looking good in the US labor market for a while now, but the positive employment trend in the United States economy could be halted tomorrow, when May's US jobs report will be released. Despite a dismal report in February, the US economy has mostly been adding jobs comfortably above the 180k average consensus mark for the last eight months, bringing the Unemployment Rate down to record lows and pushing up the wages to above 3% year-over-year rises.
The leading indicators for the Non-Farm Payrolls report in the past month have provided mixed signals, with the consumer and business surveys all showing positive signs for the labor market but the hard data has disappointed, with the ADP report, the Jobless Claims and the Job Cuts all showing worse-than-expected figures.
That completes an NFP leading indicators table with a mixed balance of positive and negative signals, but where the usually more correlated-to-NFP hard data bringing plenty of red, while the also indicative but less reliable as a short-term predictor soft data provided by businesses and consumers in surveys being rather positive.
Our bias when reading this mixed table is slightly negative, as hard data is showing some signs of stagnation after months of a very good performance. The ADP Employment private report, considered by our Non-Farm Payrolls guide as "the harbinger of the NFP, because of the existent correlation between the two", released a very poor 27k job addition, a multi-year low. Both the Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, which share weekly releases, have stalled around 220k and 1.6M each one, levels that are around the lowest in the last decade but which seem to be setting a bottom as their downtrend stops. The Challenger Job Cuts indicator also adds some force to these negative signals, as the corporate layoffs have jumped from around 40k to over 57k in the last month, which might put even more pressure to the creation of new jobs to deliver a strong number in the NFP.
That said, we can't dismiss the optimism showed in both (UMich and CB) Consumer Confidence indexes and also both the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI employment indexes, which still show upbeat consumer and corporate mood about the labor market after a couple of down months in February and March. Will this translate into actual figures of job creation, wages and unemployment rate tomorrow?
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends gains above 1.0700, focus on key US data
EUR/USD meets fresh demand and rises toward 1.0750 in the European session on Thursday. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data.
USD/JPY keeps pushing higher, eyes 156.00 ahead of US GDP data
USD/JPY keeps breaking into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 early Thursday, recapturing 155.50 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen remains vulnerable, despite looming intervention risks. The focus shifts to Thursday's US GDP report and the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold closes below key $2,318 support, US GDP holds the key
Gold price is breathing a sigh of relief early Thursday after testing offers near $2,315 once again. Broad risk-aversion seems to be helping Gold find a floor, as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bright metal ahead of the preliminary reading of the US first-quarter GDP due later on Thursday.
Injective price weakness persists despite over 5.9 million INJ tokens burned
Injective price is trading with a bearish bias, stuck in the lower section of the market range. The bearish outlook abounds despite the network's deflationary efforts to pump the price.
Meta takes a guidance slide amidst the battle between yields and earnings
Meta's disappointing outlook cast doubt on whether the market's enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Investors now brace for significant macroeconomic challenges ahead, particularly with the release of first-quarter GDP data.