- Our NFP leading indicators show a mixed picture ahead of April's US jobs report, failing to provide a strong trading signal
- ADP Employment Report provided the most positive signal, but weak Jobless Claims and manufacturing employment data balance it out
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||NFP headline and revision numbers showed moderate progress.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Positive||Corporate layoffs retraced in April from 60.587K back to 40.023K, which should signal an improvement in the labor market.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Negative||The first-time claims have increased in the last two weeks, back above the 200K reference mark.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Negative||The number of individuals currently unemployed has been trending up for the last couple of weeks, now at 1.671M.|
|ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||Positive||ISM’s non-manufacturing employment sub-component increased 0.7% from the Feb reading of 55.2%.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Negative||ISM’s manufacturing employment sub-component decreased to 52.4% from the Mar reading of 57.5%.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Negative||Retracing a bit from 98.4 to 97.2. Consumer confidence in the UMich survey dipping after the bounce seen after the US government shutdown ended.|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||Consumer optimism showing great progress in the CB survey, with a rise to 129.2 in April from the 124.2 seen in March.|
|ADP Employment Report||Positive||Showing a very positive trend by adding an estimate of 275K jobs.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Negative||Job openings abruptly halted their positive trend with a pronounced dip in February.|
This fundamental analysis article is based on our NFP crash course to become an NFP expert. Its "modelling on related macro-economic data will enable you to elaborate a fundamental analysis to estimate the next NFP release".
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