This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Down- which is normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

At this hour Asia is trading mainly Lower with the exception of the Nikkei exchange which is fractionally Higher. Currently all of Europe is trading Lower with the exception of the Paris exchange which is fractionally Higher.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
FOMC Member Clarida Speaks at 9:30 AM EST. This is major.
FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 9:35 AM EST. This is major.
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 9:40 AM EST. This is major.
Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is major.
30-y Bond Auction starts at 1 PM EST. Major
FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 4 PM EST. This is major.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made a major move at around 8 AM EST. The ZB hit a Low at around that time and the YM hit a High. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 8 AM EST and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a Low at around 8 AM and the YM was moving Lower at the same time. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 15 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. Please note: the front month for the ZB contract is now June, 2019

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform.

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as the indices didn't seem to have any sense of direction yesterday morning. The Dow gained about 7 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday morning we were faced with a news tsunami as we are today. The news reported yesterday wasn't terrible and we hope the same will prevail in today's session. We are faced with a news tsunami as the markets will release about 9 economic reports, all of which are major. Of those 9 being reported, 3 are FOMC members speaking at 3 different locations. They could all be saying the same thing or have different opinions; but of course only time will tell.

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates

Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.

GBP/USD softens to near 1.3600 as BoE hints further rate cuts

The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3610 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Pound Sterling softens against the Greenback amid growing expectations of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Monday.

Gold holds gains near $5,000 as China's gold buying drives demand

Gold price clings to the latest uptick near $5,000 in Asian trading on Monday. The precious metal holds its recovery amid a weaker US Dollar and rising demand from the Chinese central bank. The delayed release of the US employment report for January will be in the spotlight later this week.

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: The worst may be behind us

Bitcoin price recovers slightly, trading at $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after reaching a low of $60,000 during the early Asian trading session. The Crypto King remained under pressure so far this week, posting three consecutive weeks of losses exceeding 30%.

Weekly column: Saturn-Neptune and the end of the Dollar’s 15-year bull cycle

Tariffs are not only inflationary for a nation but also risk undermining the trust and credibility that go hand in hand with the responsibility of being the leading nation in the free world and controlling the world’s reserve currency.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.